Greatest Leeds United transfer priority revealed in hidden findings amid major positional boost - YEP 23/8/23

Leeds United’s defensive numbers at the beginning of the 2023/24 season have given manager Daniel Farke reason for encouragement despite the team’s inability to take three points so far – however their attacking figures outline a pressing need for supplementation in two key areas of the pitch.

By Joe Donnohue

Leeds’ performances in each of their three Championship fixtures so far this season could all have realistically yielded more positive outcomes than the two draws and one defeat accrued.

In particular, United’s concession of a late Lukas Jutkiewicz penalty was a bitter blow against Birmingham City with the Blues having threatened little throughout, as was the awarding of Brandon Thomas-Asante’s goal, which appeared to deflect in via the striker’s arm, in the 1-1 draw with West Bromwich Albion.

Had Leeds possessed the creative guile of a No. 10 in either of those fixtures, or a natural centre-forward, it is entirely plausible the team would be sitting much more comfortably in the Championship’s top half.

Leeds aren’t, though; they are 19th after three games and still in search of a first league win of the season. Fortunately, there are still several days of the summer transfer window remaining and the intention to bring in a handful of players to supplement various positions.

To the casual observer, it is plain to see Leeds need reinforcements in attack. It is something reflected in the underlying numbers, too.

Using Opta data, via FBRef.com, Leeds’ attacking output has been somewhat lacking at the beginning of the new campaign. The team’s non-penalty Expected Goals (NPxG) figure stands at 3.8, meaning the team would have been expected to score roughly four goals based on the quality of chances presented to them, excluding penalty kicks.

Leeds have scored three, but perhaps more concerningly is their efficiency in front of goal.

The Whites have fired off 48 shots in their three Championship matches this season, but only 11 have hit the back of the net or tested the opposition ‘keeper – an on target rate of just 22.9 per cent. That particular figure ranks the Whites 21st in the division for shot accuracy. It is perhaps little wonder considering Patrick Bamford was ruled out on the eve of the new season, along with Georginio Rutter who has made just one start, and the absence of prolific youngster Mateo Joseph.

Leeds’ 48 total shots ranks them sixth in the Championship, and yet their NPxG has them 12th. Theoretically, if a team’s shooting is of an average quality, their actual goals will mirror their Expected Goals total. Leeds’ currently reflects a slight underperformance, further pointing towards the need for a striker to find the back of the net in this team.

Creatively, Leeds’ data also suggests there is a pressing need for a No. 10. Metrics such as chances created, passes into the penalty area and shot-creating actions all see the Whites rank eighth in the Championship. If promotion is to be this season’s end-goal, Leeds cannot settle for that.

At the other end of the pitch, Farke will look upon Leeds’ numbers with greater fondness. They have been one of the more compact and defensively solid teams in the division so far, even if wins have not yet been forthcoming.

Leeds’ NPxG conceded is a mere 2.3 from three matches, which is the third-lowest in the second tier. Of course, Leeds have actually conceded four times, but one of those was a penalty kick and another subject to a dubious officiating decision.

Teams have created just 16 shooting chances against Farke’s men, while Leeds’ defence has limited their opponents to just 14 successful passes into Illan Meslier’s penalty area; the second-lowest and joint-third-lowest in the Championship, respectively.

Leeds are defending their own defensive third effectively, but their defensive work across the pitch is catching the eye in the data, too.

Teams have averaged 70.9 per cent pass completion against the Whites – the fourth-lowest figure – while opponents have managed a mere 11.7 progressive passes per 90 minutes.

A progressive pass is considered to be one which moves the ball a considerable distance – usually ten-or-more yards – towards the opposition goal, often made by central defenders and midfielders towards the attacking players.

Leeds have allowed the lowest number of progressive pass yards by opposing teams after three games of this Championship season, further reinforcing the notion Farke’s Whites appear defensively sound in most areas.

A slight concern may be the performance of goalkeeper Meslier, who has conceded four times from six shots on target – the joint-lowest number faced by any team in the division so far.

It may be too soon to point the finger definitively at the Frenchman, but should he continue to be susceptible whenever United’s resolute defence does allow an opponent a fine shooting opportunity, Farke may turn to second-in-command Karl Darlow, who has considerable pedigree at this level.

Nevertheless, Leeds’ foremost transfer priorities lie at No. 9 and No. 10, if the data is anything to go by.