Why Leeds United are ready to break transfer record on £40m 'moonshot' James Trafford — YEP 28/7/26

By Kyle Newbould

When Leeds United chairman Paraag Marathe spoke about transfer ‘moonshots’ last month it was in the context of attacking targets - but goalkeeper James Trafford might prove the biggest moonshot of the summer.

Leeds are on the verge of completing a deal for the Manchester City goalkeeper that will be worth £40million plus add-ons. It will be a club-record transfer by some margin, eclipsing the £35.5m spent on Georginio Rutter back in January 2023. Trafford will also strengthen his status as the most expensive English goalkeeper ever, having already been so following his £31m move from Burnley a year ago.

City signed Trafford to be their No.1 but an opportunity to land Italian international Gianluigi Donnarumma - widely regarded as one of the world’s best goalkeepers - could not be passed up. Opportunities were therefore limited for the 23-year-old but he still impressed when called upon.

Trafford played 17 games for Manchester City across all competitions, which was not a major drop off compared to the pair of goalkeepers he’ll replace at Leeds. Lucas Perri started the campaign as first-choice but was eventually dropped, making 20 appearances across all competitions, while his replacement Karl Darlow featured 24 times.

The City goalkeeper did, however, concede significantly fewer goals, letting in 13 at a rate of 0.76 per 90 while keeping eight clean sheets. On average, Perri let in 1.6 goals per game across all competitions while Darlow allowed 1.21. Between them, the Leeds pair kept nine clean sheets.

While that disparity can be partly attributed to City’s far superior defence compared to that of Leeds, Trafford has a lot to take credit for too. Across 17 appearances, he faced 3.06 shots per game with a save percentage of 75.5 per cent the second-best of any Premier League goalkeeper according to Opta statistician Jonny Cooper. For reference, Darlow’s save percentage was 69.5 per cent while Perri’s was 60.2 per cent.

Fotmob dive deeper into the data, providing insight regarding Trafford’s Expected Goals On Target (xGOT). Simply put, xGOT rates the likelihood of a shot going in based on the quality of chance - known as Expected Goals (xG) - and the actual quality of the strike. An xGOT of 0.01 is almost certain to be saved while an xGOT of 0.99 is near-guaranteed to be a goal.

xGOT is a good way to measure how effectively a goalkeeper keeps out good shots by looking at the difference between the metric and how many goals they actually conceded. Across all competitions last season, Trafford conceded 13 from an xGOT of 18.75, meaning he effectively prevented 5.75 goals.

Again for comparison, Darlow conceded 29 from an xGOT of 26.67 while Perri let in 33 from an xGOT of 31.14. Both essentially under-performed in terms of shot-stopping while Trafford significantly over-performed, albeit from a slightly smaller sample size. It’s interesting to note that Donnarumma prevented 6.79 goals last season - 41 conceded from an xGOT of 47.79 - which is not miles ahead of his City back-up.

While a very small sample size of four matches must be taken into account, last season in the Premier League Trafford prevented 0.6 goals per 90 minutes on average, more than any other top-flight goalkeeper. That is a seriously impressive showing and a significant upgrade on current first-choice Perri, who conceded 0.2 more goals per game than expected while Darlow was exactly level at 0.0.

The imminent new signing also proved more comfortable on the ball than either Leeds goalkeeper last season, a regular point of concern for Perri whose pass success rate in the Premier League stood at just 53.6 per cent. Darlow was a small improvement at 58.2 per cent but as with aforementioned shot-stopping metrics, Trafford was a major upgrade with his success rate of 73.7 per cent.

Leeds fans will remember Trafford mainly from his Burnley days and some incredible Championship numbers, with the goalkeeper conceding just 16 goals all season from an xGOT of 27.1. But despite his back-up role at City, the England international has shown an equally impressive ability to keep shots out even against top-flight opposition.

And at just 23, Trafford has huge scope to keep improving and is on course to succeed long-time England No.1 Jordan Pickford, possibly in time for the 2030 World Cup. Should Leeds get a deal over the line they will not only get a serious upgrade on their current options, but a goalkeeper with the potential to be one of the Premier League’s best.