Leeds United board’s backfiring striker brag given temporary respite as Jesse Marsch patience tested - YEP 19/11/22
Leeds United forward Rodrigo has scored nine goals in 13 league appearances this season, already his best tally in a Premier League campaign
By Joe Donnohue
Rodrigo’s first season at Elland Road was plagued by Covid
and a succession of small injuries which robbed him of continuity and form. The
Spain international, whose signing was perceived by many to challenge for the
No. 9 shirt in Marcelo Bielsa’s single-striker system, struggled to oust
one-cap England man Patrick Bamford.
In truth, the 31-year-old has appeared an awkward fit at
centre-forward throughout his time at Leeds, not quite fulfilling the same
off-ball brief as Bamford, whilst never proving a prolific goal threat, until
this season that is. Nine goals in 13 league appearances, including five in his
last four appearances has – for the time being, at least – seemingly resolved
Leeds’ persistent problem at the spear-tip of Jesse Marsch’s attack.
Only three players have scored more Premier League goals
than the Spaniard this season, and yet the perception is that Leeds are still
in need of attacking reinforcements in January. Chief executive Angus Kinnear
boasted at the beginning of the campaign that Leeds could count on two
internationally-renowned strikers and one of the finest up-and-coming young
forwards in English football. He was, for the avoidance of doubt, referring to
Patrick Bamford, whose past 18 months have been derailed by a spell of
troublesome, back-to-back injuries; Rodrigo, who was left out of Luis Enrique’s
Spain squad for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and Joe Gelhardt, with one Premier
League start to his name this season.
On paper, Leeds’ striking options are sufficient, but in
practice they have been lacking, both in terms of minutes and output. Rodrigo,
who has missed just six games through injury over the past two seasons, has
been Leeds’ constant as successive managers have toiled to find a solution.
Kinnear and the Leeds board may perceive Rodrigo's early
season form as justification not to invest in a centre-forward when the January
transfer window opens, what with the absence of value and middling success the
club have previously encountered in the winter market. That would be a mistake,
and there is every chance they will heed the cautionary tale of last season by
supplementing this coming January; Leeds decided to stick rather than twist 12
months ago, ultimately forcing them into a much-maligned, premature jettisoning
of the revered and adored Marcelo Bielsa. Having already stuck by the man they invested
heavily in this summer, it would take a slide of epic proportions to force
their hand in a similar fashion once again.
Survival was secured, but only by the skin of their teeth,
largely due to last-minute winners and the other-worldly contributions of a
pious Brazilian. This season, Raphinha is no more, but Leeds' tendency to rely
on leaving it late remains. If the Whites are to avoid a similar scenario to
the one which played out towards the end of last season, where matchdays were
met with fraught glances over shoulders, gazes directed at the relegation zone
and consternation at each concession, reinforcements are high on the list of
requirements in the New Year.
Rodrigo's nine goals are a positive, if a little surprising,
aspect to Leeds' 2022/23 campaign but the Spaniard is prone to lengthy periods
without finding the net. This is perhaps best exemplified by the 31-year-old's
Expected Goals (xG) tally this season, which suggests his total for 2022/23
should be five, rather than nine, based on the quality of chances he has had,
according to football data experts Opta. Of course, there are two sides to
every coin and Rodrigo's overperformance - the third highest in the division -
could be a reflection of his elite finishing. After all, he has scored nine
from just 13 shots on target, and the only two players with a larger
statistical overperformance are Erling Haaland and James Maddison, whose
quality in the final third is undeniable.
More likely, however, based on Rodrigo's two-and-a-half
seasons in English football with Leeds, is that his goalscoring will slow down,
coming more into line with his xG. Rodrigo’s xG overperformance in the past two
full seasons has been, as expected, comparatively lower. If the goals do dry
up, who will Leeds turn to as a reliable source, then? Bamford is yet to play
90 minutes for the senior side this season and his campaign looks increasingly
similar to 2021/22, as opposed to 2020/21 when he netted 17 times in 38
appearances.
Crysencio Summerville is Leeds' second-top scorer this
season with four, all of which have been scored in Leeds' last four matches.
His emergence is reason for excitement and encouragement but there is no body
of evidence - not at Premier League level, anyway - to suggest the Whites could
rely on the Dutchman to prolong his hot streak. The 21-year-old's own xG
overperformance ranks 12th in the Premier League this year, suggesting that he
too, will endure a more barren patch than he has enjoyed of late.
"We have targets,” Marsch said prior to Leeds’ break
for the World Cup. “I think we're smart enough to know that in order to achieve
our goals, we want to continue to look at every position.
"I don't want to talk specific about positions, we
talked enough about the striker position in the summer and I don't think that's
gone away but I think we're active,” the American added.
Marsch rarely disguises his true feelings and referencing of
‘the striker position’ suggests he acknowledges the club’s need for attacking
supplementation. Rodrigo’s scoring run – and the six-week World Cup break – is
buying Leeds’ decision-makers time, but goals in particular can be an
unreliable currency.