Leeds United board’s backfiring striker brag given temporary respite as Jesse Marsch patience tested - YEP 19/11/22

Leeds United forward Rodrigo has scored nine goals in 13 league appearances this season, already his best tally in a Premier League campaign

By Joe Donnohue

Rodrigo’s first season at Elland Road was plagued by Covid and a succession of small injuries which robbed him of continuity and form. The Spain international, whose signing was perceived by many to challenge for the No. 9 shirt in Marcelo Bielsa’s single-striker system, struggled to oust one-cap England man Patrick Bamford.

In truth, the 31-year-old has appeared an awkward fit at centre-forward throughout his time at Leeds, not quite fulfilling the same off-ball brief as Bamford, whilst never proving a prolific goal threat, until this season that is. Nine goals in 13 league appearances, including five in his last four appearances has – for the time being, at least – seemingly resolved Leeds’ persistent problem at the spear-tip of Jesse Marsch’s attack.

Only three players have scored more Premier League goals than the Spaniard this season, and yet the perception is that Leeds are still in need of attacking reinforcements in January. Chief executive Angus Kinnear boasted at the beginning of the campaign that Leeds could count on two internationally-renowned strikers and one of the finest up-and-coming young forwards in English football. He was, for the avoidance of doubt, referring to Patrick Bamford, whose past 18 months have been derailed by a spell of troublesome, back-to-back injuries; Rodrigo, who was left out of Luis Enrique’s Spain squad for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and Joe Gelhardt, with one Premier League start to his name this season.

On paper, Leeds’ striking options are sufficient, but in practice they have been lacking, both in terms of minutes and output. Rodrigo, who has missed just six games through injury over the past two seasons, has been Leeds’ constant as successive managers have toiled to find a solution.

Kinnear and the Leeds board may perceive Rodrigo's early season form as justification not to invest in a centre-forward when the January transfer window opens, what with the absence of value and middling success the club have previously encountered in the winter market. That would be a mistake, and there is every chance they will heed the cautionary tale of last season by supplementing this coming January; Leeds decided to stick rather than twist 12 months ago, ultimately forcing them into a much-maligned, premature jettisoning of the revered and adored Marcelo Bielsa. Having already stuck by the man they invested heavily in this summer, it would take a slide of epic proportions to force their hand in a similar fashion once again.

Survival was secured, but only by the skin of their teeth, largely due to last-minute winners and the other-worldly contributions of a pious Brazilian. This season, Raphinha is no more, but Leeds' tendency to rely on leaving it late remains. If the Whites are to avoid a similar scenario to the one which played out towards the end of last season, where matchdays were met with fraught glances over shoulders, gazes directed at the relegation zone and consternation at each concession, reinforcements are high on the list of requirements in the New Year.

Rodrigo's nine goals are a positive, if a little surprising, aspect to Leeds' 2022/23 campaign but the Spaniard is prone to lengthy periods without finding the net. This is perhaps best exemplified by the 31-year-old's Expected Goals (xG) tally this season, which suggests his total for 2022/23 should be five, rather than nine, based on the quality of chances he has had, according to football data experts Opta. Of course, there are two sides to every coin and Rodrigo's overperformance - the third highest in the division - could be a reflection of his elite finishing. After all, he has scored nine from just 13 shots on target, and the only two players with a larger statistical overperformance are Erling Haaland and James Maddison, whose quality in the final third is undeniable.

More likely, however, based on Rodrigo's two-and-a-half seasons in English football with Leeds, is that his goalscoring will slow down, coming more into line with his xG. Rodrigo’s xG overperformance in the past two full seasons has been, as expected, comparatively lower. If the goals do dry up, who will Leeds turn to as a reliable source, then? Bamford is yet to play 90 minutes for the senior side this season and his campaign looks increasingly similar to 2021/22, as opposed to 2020/21 when he netted 17 times in 38 appearances.

Crysencio Summerville is Leeds' second-top scorer this season with four, all of which have been scored in Leeds' last four matches. His emergence is reason for excitement and encouragement but there is no body of evidence - not at Premier League level, anyway - to suggest the Whites could rely on the Dutchman to prolong his hot streak. The 21-year-old's own xG overperformance ranks 12th in the Premier League this year, suggesting that he too, will endure a more barren patch than he has enjoyed of late.

"We have targets,” Marsch said prior to Leeds’ break for the World Cup. “I think we're smart enough to know that in order to achieve our goals, we want to continue to look at every position.

"I don't want to talk specific about positions, we talked enough about the striker position in the summer and I don't think that's gone away but I think we're active,” the American added.

Marsch rarely disguises his true feelings and referencing of ‘the striker position’ suggests he acknowledges the club’s need for attacking supplementation. Rodrigo’s scoring run – and the six-week World Cup break – is buying Leeds’ decision-makers time, but goals in particular can be an unreliable currency.