Leeds United: Better placed statistically and optimistically than a year ago - Hay
YEP 9/11/13
by Phil Hay
Statistically you can draw a horizontal line between Leeds United now and Leeds United as they were 12 months ago.
The benchmark set by Neil Warnock – 20 points from 14 games – has been reached but not breached by Brian McDermott.
The Championship’s pace dictates that Leeds sit seven places higher than they did in November 2012 but a three-point margin to sixth position is unchanged. Likewise the bookmakers’ odds which continue to point to another season in the Football League for a club who have seen out a decade there.
But for the past week, McDermott has been talking like a manager who fancies his chances, backing Leeds to “be close” to promotion if their results away from home prove less prohibitive than they were under Warnock. The uninitiated will look at the mirror image between this season and last and assume that nothing has changed. But a handful of significant differences will dictate whether United have the legs to reach the play-offs:
1) The Alex Mowatt Factor.
Reserve judgement on Mowatt’s powers of endurance, rather than his suitability for a full year in the Championship. Aidan White lit up United’s line-up in 2008 but ground to a halt after a month-and-a-half and needed Gary McAllister to save him from himself. But Mowatt’s performances are more reminiscent of Sam Byram’s breakthrough than they are of White’s, and the 18-year-old has strung together seven starts without oozing strain or fatigue. It won’t have hurt that he came into this season on the back of a long rest enforced by an ankle injury, and his emergence has given McDermott a bona fide ball-playing midfielder; the sort of string-puller who clubs will start offering money for if his upward trajectory flies away. Leeds have ample options in midfield but few who are genuinely suited to dominating the ball and directing the troops. Mowatt aside, the most consistent passer in United’s squad – Michael Tonge – is far less mobile than him and easier to pin down, and United will play more football because of Mowatt’s involvement.
2) Luciano Becchio and his eye for a goal.
On Monday night, McDermott backed Ross McCormack to reach 20 goals for the season after his brace against Yeovil took him to eight. This time last year Becchio had 10 to his name and was on the cusp of a run of seven in as many games leading up to Christmas. The devil’s advocate will argue that in that period, Becchio was a mediocre team-player who topped up his haul with penalties but the criticism does not detract from his immense strikerate. Or the fact that with Becchio in the team, a penalty was as good as a goal. He had 19 by the time he was sold to Norwich City and Steve Morison was no replacement. McCormack has stepped up again, as he did in 2011-12, but it remains to be seen if he can pull rabbits out of the hat like Becchio did, no matter the circumstances or how poorly Leeds were playing. And if McCormack can’t, where will that leave the club?
3) Sam Byram’s fitness.
United say his thigh strain is nothing to do with the hip injury he fought for five months, and they know best. But other players who have suffered problems with their hips – Ben Parker for one – will tell you that issues in that area can result in a spate of related niggles.
Byram has missed 10 league games which, given Leeds’ proximity to the top six, might tempt McDermott to think that they are well placed with more to come. All the same, United need 35 to 40 high-level displays from him and are in no position to count on that. Leeds with Byram on the right are in a different class to Leeds without him.
4) A younger team with greener shoots.
Potential; a trait worth only as much as players make of it. But the team who lost United’s 14th match last season – 1-0 away to Burnley – had an average age of 28, including four players over 30 and eight over 25. Against Yeovil last weekend, the respective figures read 25, two and five. Damn lies and statistics, they say, but what you can gauge from that comparison is that the squad at Leeds has more scope to grow, develop and improve than it did this time in 2012. McDermott could conceivably have a better side in February or March purely on the basis of natural progression. That is no reason to neglect the transfer market in January but it does give him a good amount of raw ability to work with and hone. More often than not, you get what you see with older players – and rarely last season did Leeds appear to be hiding talent under a bush.
5) McDermott’s positive vibes.
Nov. 16, 2012: Warnock holds a press conference at Thorp Arch where he gives in to his annoyance about the delayed takeover of Leeds and speaks with all the optimism of General Custer. Talking about promotion would be “stupid”, he admits. At this juncture, McDermott might not feel that he is better placed to deliver that prize at the first time of asking but he has a canny way of blocking out doubt and sticking to the programme – refitting the training ground, rebuilding United’s scouting network, installing Prozone, embracing the academy. A knife or two came out for him last month but he does himself a favour by refusing to prophesy doom. However this job treats him, he’ll leave behind something resembling serious infrastructure.
by Phil Hay
Statistically you can draw a horizontal line between Leeds United now and Leeds United as they were 12 months ago.
The benchmark set by Neil Warnock – 20 points from 14 games – has been reached but not breached by Brian McDermott.
The Championship’s pace dictates that Leeds sit seven places higher than they did in November 2012 but a three-point margin to sixth position is unchanged. Likewise the bookmakers’ odds which continue to point to another season in the Football League for a club who have seen out a decade there.
But for the past week, McDermott has been talking like a manager who fancies his chances, backing Leeds to “be close” to promotion if their results away from home prove less prohibitive than they were under Warnock. The uninitiated will look at the mirror image between this season and last and assume that nothing has changed. But a handful of significant differences will dictate whether United have the legs to reach the play-offs:
1) The Alex Mowatt Factor.
Reserve judgement on Mowatt’s powers of endurance, rather than his suitability for a full year in the Championship. Aidan White lit up United’s line-up in 2008 but ground to a halt after a month-and-a-half and needed Gary McAllister to save him from himself. But Mowatt’s performances are more reminiscent of Sam Byram’s breakthrough than they are of White’s, and the 18-year-old has strung together seven starts without oozing strain or fatigue. It won’t have hurt that he came into this season on the back of a long rest enforced by an ankle injury, and his emergence has given McDermott a bona fide ball-playing midfielder; the sort of string-puller who clubs will start offering money for if his upward trajectory flies away. Leeds have ample options in midfield but few who are genuinely suited to dominating the ball and directing the troops. Mowatt aside, the most consistent passer in United’s squad – Michael Tonge – is far less mobile than him and easier to pin down, and United will play more football because of Mowatt’s involvement.
2) Luciano Becchio and his eye for a goal.
On Monday night, McDermott backed Ross McCormack to reach 20 goals for the season after his brace against Yeovil took him to eight. This time last year Becchio had 10 to his name and was on the cusp of a run of seven in as many games leading up to Christmas. The devil’s advocate will argue that in that period, Becchio was a mediocre team-player who topped up his haul with penalties but the criticism does not detract from his immense strikerate. Or the fact that with Becchio in the team, a penalty was as good as a goal. He had 19 by the time he was sold to Norwich City and Steve Morison was no replacement. McCormack has stepped up again, as he did in 2011-12, but it remains to be seen if he can pull rabbits out of the hat like Becchio did, no matter the circumstances or how poorly Leeds were playing. And if McCormack can’t, where will that leave the club?
3) Sam Byram’s fitness.
United say his thigh strain is nothing to do with the hip injury he fought for five months, and they know best. But other players who have suffered problems with their hips – Ben Parker for one – will tell you that issues in that area can result in a spate of related niggles.
Byram has missed 10 league games which, given Leeds’ proximity to the top six, might tempt McDermott to think that they are well placed with more to come. All the same, United need 35 to 40 high-level displays from him and are in no position to count on that. Leeds with Byram on the right are in a different class to Leeds without him.
4) A younger team with greener shoots.
Potential; a trait worth only as much as players make of it. But the team who lost United’s 14th match last season – 1-0 away to Burnley – had an average age of 28, including four players over 30 and eight over 25. Against Yeovil last weekend, the respective figures read 25, two and five. Damn lies and statistics, they say, but what you can gauge from that comparison is that the squad at Leeds has more scope to grow, develop and improve than it did this time in 2012. McDermott could conceivably have a better side in February or March purely on the basis of natural progression. That is no reason to neglect the transfer market in January but it does give him a good amount of raw ability to work with and hone. More often than not, you get what you see with older players – and rarely last season did Leeds appear to be hiding talent under a bush.
5) McDermott’s positive vibes.
Nov. 16, 2012: Warnock holds a press conference at Thorp Arch where he gives in to his annoyance about the delayed takeover of Leeds and speaks with all the optimism of General Custer. Talking about promotion would be “stupid”, he admits. At this juncture, McDermott might not feel that he is better placed to deliver that prize at the first time of asking but he has a canny way of blocking out doubt and sticking to the programme – refitting the training ground, rebuilding United’s scouting network, installing Prozone, embracing the academy. A knife or two came out for him last month but he does himself a favour by refusing to prophesy doom. However this job treats him, he’ll leave behind something resembling serious infrastructure.