Why Leeds United will stay up even if Jesse Marsch can't count on most idyllic scenario - YEP 31/3/22

In a little over a week, Leeds United could be all-but safe from relegation and in a position to attack the final six games with freedom and reckless abandon.

By Graham Smyth

A win over Southampton at Elland Road on Saturday and another, at Watford, seven days after that, would leave Jesse Marsch and his men with 35 points, surely close to an unassailable tally for at least three other sides.

Breathing room, confidence and an easing of tension that has made life at Elland Road all-too fraught for far too much of this season is the dream scenario for Marsch and an environment in which he can begin to properly introduce his ideas. It all sounds so simple. Idyllic has not been the Leeds United way, though, a fact the American will have already grasped given the nature of his first two wins as head coach.

Promotion was won after a three-month delay and celebrated in an empty stadium. The first season of Premier League football in 16 years, one that held such scintillating football and some incredible results, was played behind closed doors.

When fans returned, the football struggled to match the same high standards and the results were not as good, which is why Marsch was introduced to the hot seat when he was. Even the manner of his arrival fell so far short of ideal, walking into a club in a period of mourning to replace a beloved legend whose team was creaking and cracking under the pressure put upon them by injuries, loss of individual and collective form and systemic defensive problems.

Marsch still has so much work to do to extricate Leeds from the mess he found and even more work to do to convince supporters that he really is the man to ‘evolve’ what Marcelo Bielsa built, but presiding over their first back-to-back wins of the season has given him a momentum this campaign rarely afforded to his predecessor.

Victor Orta on Raphinha and Deco.https://t.co/XvlGQlJMdF#lufc

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And throughout the squad there are players with so many reasons to run themselves into the ground for their new boss.

Take Raphinha, for example. A strong finish to the season, or at least a run of performances that show him in a better light than some of his displays in recent weeks, could be enough to convince a number of Champions League clubs to put offers on the table this summer.

Then there’s Kalvin Phillips, England’s 2020/21 Player of the Year, without whom the Three Lions coped pretty well in their March internationals. His season hasn’t quite been a write-off but he sat out 14 straight games after tearing his hamstring and will be keen to show Gareth Southgate in the remaining games that he is still every inch the player who performed so brilliantly in the Euros last summer.

For others in the squad, there’s a place in Marsch’s future plans at stake in the final six weeks of this season. Some would find it difficult to argue that their 2021/22 performances so far identify them as a shoo-in for a place in an evolved Leeds United team. A changing of the guard is coming, whether abruptly this summer or in a more phased manner over the next few transfer windows, but undoubtedly for some, time is short to make any kind of case to the new head coach.

All of these things will be playing on minds at idle moments in the days and weeks in between games, no matter how much players vow their sole focus is the next game. Very few people live so intensely in the present that the future and all its uncertainties is paid no heed.

But none of these things is a reason why Leeds United will stay up. That will happen because, when faced with games, in-game scenarios and moments that call for character, this team can dig into deep reserves of it. Their mettle has been tested and questioned this season, to a degree far more uncomfortable perhaps than even in the Championship-winning season when it all seemed to be slipping from their grasp during a loss of form, and yet they proved against both Norwich and Wolves that they have what it takes.

Phillips won’t be thinking of England or the World Cup when he spots a 50:50 and moves towards the ball. Raphinha won’t have visions of Camp Nou if he’s through on goal. They probably won’t even be thinking about relegation. Those are situations that only permit players to think and live in the moment and to act on instinct. And when it comes to it, those two players are more than good enough for the Premier League. Many of their team-mates are too. Liam Cooper coming back, along with Phillips, will undoubtedly help. Rodrigo’s new-found confidence will too. Joe Gelhardt has another goal or two in him this season. Mateusz Klich has a profile that fits Marsch’s system nicely. Luke Ayling and Stuart Dallas possess levels of never-say-die spirit that pose a danger to their health. Illan Meslier and Pascal Struijk have had wobbles, but they’re good enough for this league.

It’s something that has to be proven constantly; no team can rest on the laurels of a previous campaign but this team has enough individual quality and collective character to get the two wins they need to remain in the top flight. Saints, Watford, Crystal Palace, Brighton and Brentford all represent difficult but winnable games and there is always a chance, no matter how slim, of a shock result in one of the three fixtures against the sides at the other end of the table. The encounters with Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea might just provide Marsch with an opportunity to show that Leeds can set up in such a way to avoid a thrashing at the hands of quality opposition. Regardless, in those eight games chances to earn the necessary points will arise.

It would, of course, be most unlike Leeds to do it in the most straightforward manner, beating Southampton and Watford in succession. There may well be high drama and heart-stopping moments, there might be more tension and worry to come before the end. There will be three worse teams at 6pm on May 22.