The big Leeds United decision Daniel Farke must weigh up after Harry Wilson transfer 'upgrade' — YEP 7/7/26

By Kyle Newbould

Leeds United will hope for an upgrade in their attacking output from right-wing following the arrival of Harry Wilson.

Confirmation of Wilson’s move to Elland Road is imminent after a deal was agreed to sign the free agent following his Fulham exit. Leeds expected competition for the 29-year-old following a best-ever season at Craven Cottage but came out on top to land a player they’ve wanted since at least last summer.

Leeds’ failed deadline-day move for Wilson left them short of difference-making quality in the right-wing/No.10 position, and Facundo Buonanotte’s January loan arrival proved ineffective. For the most part, that area of the pitch was occupied by Brenden Aaronson.

Aaronson enjoyed one of his more productive campaigns for Leeds last season, his nine direct contributions - four goals and five assists - level with Noah Okafor and second only to top-scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin. But while a solid tally, it falls some way short of Wilson’s 10 goals and seven assists for Fulham.

Both were available for the vast majority of last season, with one of Aaronson’s biggest strengths his durability in playing all but one of Leeds’ 38 Premier League matches. Wilson managed 37 top-flight appearances, 30 of which were from the start, but actually played around 200 minutes more than his future teammate’s 2,465.

Harry Wilson vs Brenden Aaronson attacking stats

Simply put, Wilson contributed with a goal or assist every 158 minutes on average while a goal involvement arrived every 274 minutes for Aaronson - whose side scored two more than Fulham overall last season. A continuation of that form in front of goal would see Leeds get a significant upgrade in terms of difference-making quality on the right.

A factor in that increased productivity is Wilson’s eye for a shot. The Welsh international could regularly be seen cutting inside for Fulham and either curling or arrowing a left-footed effort towards goal. According to FotMob, he averaged 2.61 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season compared to Aaronson’s 1.72.

Leeds will look to benefit from Wilson’s quality of strike from distance, which saw him score a number of great goals at Craven Cottage over the years. As a left-footer, he is more inclined to cut in and shoot than the right-footed Aaronson and has consistently shown an ability to test goalkeepers from outside the box.

Interestingly, Wilson’s 10 goals last season came from an Expected Goals (xG) total of just 5.83 which made him the third-highest over-performer across the Premier League in terms of finishing. Only Manchester City’s Antoine Semenyo (17 goals from 11.09 xG) and Eli Junior-Kroupi of Bournemouth (13 goals from 8.35 xG) out-performed the imminent Leeds signing.

While some might suggest Wilson’s over-performance cannot be sustainable, hinting towards a possible drop in overall goals, it could also be argued as evidence of his great ball-striking ability from areas in which xG is usually low. That he’s regularly been able to score from distance over multiple years would point towards the latter theory.

Wilson transfers gives Leeds United set-piece edge

Wilson’s arrival will also give Leeds a more varied threat from set-pieces, with the winger regularly on dead-ball duties for Fulham, scoring one free-kick last season against Brighton. As a left-footer, he will provide something Farke’s side didn’t already have in their locker as they often relied on the right-footed Anton Stach for free-kicks and corners.

Wilson managed a couple more assists than Aaronson last season but the pair produced similar underlying numbers in terms of creativity. The incoming signing created 1.3 chances and 0.27 big chances per 90 minutes last season while current first-choice Aaronson created 1.24 chances and 0.33 big chances.

An area in which Aaronson does have the advantage, unsurprisingly, is defensively. The American’s work-rate has never been in doubt across multiple years at Leeds and remains a valued asset for Farke who demands a lot physically from his attackers.

Most notably, Aaronson averaged 7.89 defensive contributions - clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles - per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season while Wilson averaged 5.92. Leeds’ current right-wing option also made 4.75 ball recoveries per game while his soon-to-be competitor recorded 2.74.

Aaronson also has the edge when it comes to pressing opposition defenders, winning possession in the final third 0.58 times per 90 minutes compared to Wilson’s 0.33. While there are tactical factors that can affect those numbers - Fulham averaging more possession than Leeds and therefore defending less, for example - it’s clear Wilson is behind Aaronson when it comes to defensive influence.

For Farke, that is the decision when it comes to picking Aaronson or Wilson next season. As things stand, one is seen to offer more defensive stability while the other would be expected to provide a higher number of contributions going forward in what is ultimately an attacking position at right-wing or No.10.