Leeds United's £120m Illan Meslier decision reignites Allardyce call as numbers paint concerning picture — YEP 29/4/24

Leeds United have conceded eight goals from the opposition’s last 12 shots on target, asking questions of Illan Meslier at the season’s finale for the second year running.

By Joe Donnohue

The French goalkeeper has been Leeds’ first-choice between the sticks since the last time the club were on the brink of promotion, replacing the banned Kiko Casilla at the end of 2019/20.

Then-head coach Marcelo Bielsa did not look back as the Whites took up residency in the Premier League, trusting the young stopper in the division as United finished ninth.

Still just 24 years old, Meslier is one of the youngest ‘keepers in whichever division he plays, but the experience he has in English football is vast. He has played under several Leeds bosses: Bielsa, Jesse Marsch, Javi Gracia, Michael Skubala, Sam Allardyce and currently Daniel Farke, but only one has seen fit to drop the ex-Lorient man.

That particular instance came following a run of difficult games for Meslier during the back end of last season as Leeds were relegated from the top flight. Joel Robles replaced his younger colleague but there was little material improvement in goal as Leeds’ fate was sealed, Allardyce unable to salvage anything during his four games in charge.

Leeds’ three most recent matches has seen the team surrender their tag as best defence in the Championship, conceding eight times versus Blackburn Rovers, Middlesbrough and QPR. Had United given away chance after chance, it would suggest something structurally wrong with the defensive setup, but over the past 270 minutes of Championship football, Leeds have allowed just 12 shots on target.

Blackburn scored with one of their two attempts on target at Elland Road earlier this month, while Middlesbrough scored three of their five on target at the Riverside Stadium. Then, last Friday, Queens Park Rangers netted with four of their five attempts on goal.

Perhaps most concerning is the cumulative Expected Goals value of the eight Leeds have conceded in that time. At 1.64, the data suggests Meslier has conceded an additional six goals than the average goalkeeper would have been expected to, based on the quality of the chances Leeds conceded from.

It mirrors the performance of Leeds’ No. 1 this time last year when Allardyce elected to bring the more experienced Robles into the fold for Leeds’ last couple of Premier League fixtures.

As Leeds fell to back-to-back 5-1 and 6-1 defeats by Crystal Palace and Liverpool last April, Meslier came in for criticism. Five of Palace’s eight shots on target found the net that day, while each of Liverpool’s first six left the goalkeeper picking the ball out of his goal.

Last season, according to Opta, Meslier recorded the second-worst post-shot xG (PSxG) record in the Premier League - a metric which calculates how likely a goalkeeper is to save any given shot on target. This season, his performance has sunk just below the Championship average.

Farke said on Friday night after Leeds’ humbling by QPR that now is not the time to point fingers or apportion blame to individuals. He was talking about Joel Piroe, but could so easily have been referring to Meslier, too.

While the 24-year-old has been responsible for a memorable save or two this term, his stop from Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s late header at the King Power Stadium a particular highlight as Leeds clung onto a 1-0 win, his 19 clean sheets and lengthy spell without conceding from open play at the beginning of the year has a lot to do with the players in front of him.

All players are entitled to dips in form and to an extent, Farke is right when he says it is hardly the time to play the blame game with important fixtures still to be contested. But, Meslier’s punch resistance has deserted him at crucial junctures in consecutive seasons.

Had the manager not already declared he was unlikely to make personnel changes during the run-in, Meslier might have found himself jettisoned for Karl Darlow by now. In the same way Farke appears reluctant to thrust Mateo Joseph into the side in place of one-goal-in-seven Patrick Bamford, he is unlikely to give Darlow the gloves for the final game of the regular season and potentially the play-offs with the substitute ‘keeper still in single figures for Leeds appearances, none of which he particularly excelled in.

It leaves Farke with a quandary: stick to his guns and hope the out-of-sorts ‘keeper rediscovers his 2020/21 season form which saw him touted for a senior international call-up, or bring Darlow in from the cold? There is, of course, a scenario in which Meslier proves Farke’s faith has been well-placed all along and with recent displays, there are few with a greater duty to put in a performance in the game, or games, that are to come.

Whichever way you look at it, there are risks, especially when Premier League membership worth an annual £120 million is on the line, but Leeds need more of a reward than they’re getting between the sticks.