Life Ain’t Just a Bet, But We’ve Never Won it Yet - The Square Ball 15/9/21
CASINO
Written by Steven York
It might not look like Leeds United are persistently gambling,
but we are. I don’t just mean the SBOTOP sponsor and Ladbrokes kiosks littered
throughout the ground. Marcelo Bielsa was a gamble that paid off. A gamble so
large Victor Orta staked his employment on it. Our immediate future is peppered
with more opportunities as a result of Premier League status, but to take them
we still need to gamble, endlessly, for a number of reasons.
Signing a new player is always a gamble. Were Manchester
City to sign Harry Kane, would he work in a different system? Kylian Mbappe is
supposed to guarantee goals, but can you guarantee he’d perform alongside Chris
Wood at Burnley? Sure thing transfers are risky, let alone the gambles clubs
like Leeds have to take on players who need development, rehabilitation or
simply aren’t proven. Proven low risk transfers are beyond what we can afford.
This is why loans are a good route into the market for clubs without deep
pockets: we knew what we were getting with Jackie Harrison and ultimately that
his ability was worth his transfer fee. We can’t have that confidence with most
players.
Junior Firpo is a gamble. Raphinha was a gamble. Patrick Bamford
was a gamble. And so on. Some of these gambles come good immediately, like
Raphinha, others need continued faith and long-term commitment, like Bamford.
The problem with gambling is that you don’t win every time, and sometimes you
end up worse off.
Leeds United need to gamble more than most because we can’t
afford not to. We can’t afford to strengthen all the areas we need so we gamble
on the existing squad remaining healthy. If we lose that bet, we need to gamble
on the Academy being good enough to plug the gap. Look at our very evident
problems in midfield at the moment; we didn’t manage to bring a central
midfielder to the club during the summer so we’re gambling on Adam Forshaw
returning to first team fitness, or Lewis Bate being ready to step in whenever
needed. Those are big gambles for our difficult second season. A season when
the stench of Sheffield United’s demise is hot in every pundit’s nostrils.
Take Rodrigo — a record £27m transfer and Spanish
international striker. On paper you’d suggest he was a safe bet, but most fans
agree that he hasn’t yet impressed. That stylish brace against Burnley aside,
we haven’t unlocked the player we hoped we were buying. Now, do we gamble — a
la Bamford — and persist with him? Or do we gamble and change? Tyler Roberts
hasn’t made us worse when he’s come on so far this season, so does he deserve a
shot? Do we gamble and move Raphinha centrally, knowing he’s effective on the
wing, allowing £25m gamble Dan James to come in?
Sides like Manchester City and Scum don’t gamble like this
because they have multiple first-teams. Re-signing Ronaldo isn’t a big gamble,
is it? Re-signing Pogba wasn’t either. Chelsea can play safe knowing that
Lukaku is quality in the same way that Manchester City can be confident about what
Jack Grealish will bring. Can Leeds have the same confidence in Dan James or
even our inevitable reliance on Crysencio Summerville? Of course not. They need
to develop before the outcome of those gambles is known.
When the fun stops, stop, is good advice. Is this still fun?
Ask me again in May.