Leeds United need to axe £5m Victor Orta signing whatever their division next season: View — Football League World 8/5/24

BY ADAM ELLIOTT

Illan Meslier's Leeds United future has come into question recently. Could the Frenchman be sold, irrespective of promotion?

Meslier's days at Leeds United could be numbered due to recent performance issues and the need for a more consistent goalkeeper.

Post-Shot xG stats show Meslier has conceded more goals than expected this season, leading to questions about his future.

Leeds should consider upgrading their goalkeeper position this summer, even if Meslier has been a good value player for the club.

Illan Meslier may have been Leeds United's number one for the last four seasons, including under Daniel Farke this term, featuring in almost every Championship fixture so far, but the goalkeeper's days could be numbered.

Although he was the joint winner of the golden glove, as his clean sheets have racked up in 2024, recent games have highlighted the issues surrounding Meslier for some time, which may be of concern to Farke and his team, especially during the end-of-season games of such importance.

Promotion is no guarantee for any side in a play-off battle, but it is undeniably important to have an in-form, consistent, and competent goalkeeper. Leeds' opponents, Norwich City, have that with Angus Gunn, but many Leeds fans have voiced their concerns with Meslier in both the short and long-term.

There were plenty of rumours and speculation surrounding Leeds' goalkeeper during the summer, but the Frenchman remained at Elland Road, despite his high stock from the Premier League. Meslier was expected to depart Leeds throughout the summer and was a player that reports suggested the Whites would sell.

The position between the sticks has been unchanged in the league almost all season for Farke, who knows who his number one is. Leeds do not lack goalkeeping options with Karl Darlow but the incumbent – the 24-year-old that featured in 43 out of their 46 second tier games – is their most talented option.

However, the Whites will be aware that Meslier is a player that they can easily turn a profit on, with Victor Orta having spent around £5 million on the Frenchman during the summer of 2020 to bring him across from Lorient; but with nine goals conceded in the last three games at the worst conceivable time, there have been concerns raised once more.

Meslier's best form came during his first 18 months as Leeds’ number one after Marcelo Bielsa selected the Frenchman for the back end of the promotion campaign, but he has scarcely been able to recapture that form, aside from the months from January to March this season, where he was back to his best self, and looking both more confident and more assured between the sticks.

However, the mistakes in games recently perhaps highlight the need for better quality long-term, whilst top class saves at the turn of the year in games against Leicester City and Sheffield Wednesday in particular showcased the Frenchman at his best, Meslier is also an easy player to sell to help balance the books against Profit and Sustainability regulation rules, too.

That provides an extra incentive for Leeds to cash in during an upcoming window, especially given that he enters the final two years of his deal, where they may be minded to offer him a new deal on a much healthier contract or to sell, but can hardly stand in his way if a top-flight offer comes his way, and Leeds themselves look to upgrade.

Post-Shot xG (PSxG) is calculated after a shot from an opponent has been taken and generally considers the quality of shot placement, and if the model includes it, goalkeeper positioning in assigning a value between 0 (off-target) and 1 to every shot. It is a statistic that is useful when measuring the form and success of a goalkeeper.

Leeds' number-one has faced 34.9 PSxG this season (FBref), and conceded 40 goals from that, meaning he has conceded around five more goals than the model suggests he should. It highlights a slightly worrying trend, with plenty of Leeds fans hoping that he could return to his best by dropping down a division.

The latter two stages of Leeds' recent stint in the top-flight saw the goalkeeper face more shots than any other goalkeeper in the league, with Leeds one of the most wide-open defensive teams under each of the likes of Bielsa, Jesse Marsch, Javi Gracia, and Sam Allardyce. The blame cannot solely lie at his feet in that sense, as Leeds' tactics often left them exposed defensively, but conceding roughly 150 goals in two seasons won't have done Meslier any good.

In recent games, mistakes have come against the likes of QPR and Middlesbrough in particular, leaving many asking questions about the long-term future of Meslier at Elland Road.

His growth has been stagnant at best for a young stopper many had high hopes for and a change should be on the cards this summer, even if Leeds fail to achieve promotion. He has been a good value player for the Whites, but an experienced head who brings a calming presence to the backline should be sought if they go up, or a different younger project if they fail to bounce back to the top-flight at the first time of asking.

It's the best time for all parties to move on whilst his contract begins to run down this summer, banking Leeds with some cash and giving Meslier a fresh start elsewhere.