Leeds United's unsaid full-back difficulty and late January transfer window expectation — YEP 29/1/24
Leeds United supporters are waiting impatiently to discover what 49ers Enterprises will serve up in their first real January transfer window and hoping it's nothing like the last two.
By Graham Smyth
January has been a learning month for the Whites in recent
times, thanks to mistakes of a very different nature. The 2021 window taught us
very little, given that no one arrived and Leeds carried on their merry way to
finish in the Premier League top 10. But the same tactic in 2022 brought a very
different result, Bielsa paying with his job for a poor run of results against
top six sides having failed to be convinced by the mid-season market options
the club put to him. The brush with relegation that followed was too close for
comfort, even if the final day escape gave owner Andrea Radrizzani reason to
run across the Brentford pitch in celebration. The lesson was that if you don't
get your summer strengthening right, January strengthening becomes vital. And
if you don't get that right, expect your struggles to continue.
In 2023, as Leeds again battled against relegation, they
went for a completely different approach in January. In came Juventus
midfielder Weston McKennie, on loan, alongside £10m defender Max Wober and
Georginio Rutter, a club-record signing for a potential outlay of £35.5m. Of
course the club did not pay all of that money up front but as January transfer
window commitments go, it felt significant. And yet relegation could not be
avoided, for all the management upheaval that followed Marsch's sacking. The lesson
was that January strengthening is largely pointless if it's not what you need -
McKennie pulled up precisely no trees, Wober looked solid enough but the goals
kept flying in at the wrong end and Rutter was deemed not ready by successive
managers. Take the long view over the Frenchman as much as you like - he
clearly is and will be a big player for the club - but a reliable and proven
top flight goalscorer is what was needed this time last year.
Ultimately Leeds have learned that you can do nothing and
suffer the consequences, or you can do lots and still suffer even worse
consequences. Right now, in the final few days of a window in which they have
done nothing in terms of incoming transfers, Leeds sit just two points off the
automatic promotion spots and boast an unbeaten January in all competitions.
The squad, as it stands, has been good enough to put them there or thereabouts
and there is little reason to believe they won't go on to finish in the
play-offs at the very least, regardless of January strengthening. But there is
an expectation, both inside and outside Elland Road, that this week will bring
one or two bits of incoming business, for two reasons. Number one, the squad is
small. Number two, it is creaking.
You could see the exits of Jeremiah Mullen, Darko Gyabi,
Lewis Bate and the almost-out-the-door Leo Hjelde as a further shrinking of the
numbers at Thorp Arch but none of them were considered realistic options by the
manager. That he did not consider any of the 21s worthy of a call up for the FA
Cup game at the weekend and instead put two goalkeepers on the bench said
something about how close those beneath the senior set-up really are to it.
What you see with his matchday squad is pretty much what you get now at Leeds
United. And within that small squad, Farke runs with a tight first-choice
group, relying relentlessly on certain individuals. But the exits of Luke Aying
and Djed Spence are different, because they were in his plans until suddenly
they were not, for different reasons.
Recent weeks have proved, through injuries to Pascal Struijk
and Archie Gray, that in a number of positions Leeds are not very far away from
potential problems. In one area Farke has been able to find the answer from
within. Struijk's absence has been solved by Ampadu moving back - signing a
centre-back to play central midfield will give you that flexibility - and Ilia
Gruev coming to the fore in the middle of the park. The return of Liam Cooper
gives Farke more cover and the ability to slot Ampadu back into midfield,
should he so wish, while Charlie Cresswell's desire to stay and fight for
football at Leeds further eases concerns at centre-back.
Where Leeds and peril exist in much closer proximity is in
the full-back positions. As temporary as Gray's loss may be, he's the third
right-back to be removed from Farke's options since the month began. Gone is
Spence, through a failure to meet the totality of the manager's demands, and
Ayling followed him out the door so he could play some football at
Middlesbrough. Sam Byram and Jamie Shackleton's ability to fill in for Gray is
not particularly problematic for footballing reasons but physical reliability
ones. In fact of Farke's four full-backs, two of whom are actually midfielders,
only Gray has stayed injury free this season - until now. Byram and Junior
Firpo are, at long last, fit to battle it out for the left-back spot, but for
how long?
There are notes of Bielsa in how Farke talks about transfer
dealings, noting the club's reality and the difficulty in getting what you need
in January. Something that has gone unsaid by the manager is how the Spence
situation, Leeds' refusal to give game time assurances to Fabio Carvalho and
the idea of sitting below a teenage midfielder in the right-back pecking order
might amount to a hard sell for potential January full-back targets. There are
notes of Bielsa in how Farke deals with problems without the need for
transfers, too. Gray at right-back, Byram at left-back, Ampadu at centre-back,
Rutter as a 10 and the reintroduction of Patrick Bamford are all ways in which
he has managed, rather than paid, his way to results.
The manager has also admitted there is a need, however, and
it doesn't take a brilliant footballing mind to see that. It is a simple
numbers game. Four full-backs, with too many injuries, into two positions will
not always go. So into the market Leeds must surely go. The maths are not so
simple when it comes to financial outlay this time, thanks to the
Championship's profit and sustainability rules, but there are two loan spots
they can use. There are also now only a handful of days in which to use them.
Speed is of the essence and the argument that waiting for Premier League
dominoes to fall is the best strategy is about to be tested. Do nothing and
maybe you'll be fine. This squad got you this far, after all. Do nothing and
suffer any kind of negative consequence, and this will be a stick you'll feel
over and over again for a long time. Do something and it has to be the right
thing, or that will be the stick used for your thrashing. Jean-Kevin Augustin
continues to be the spectre at the feast four years on. An attempt to win the
race for Japan international Daiki Hashioka was aborted over injury concerns
and while it makes sense to only bring in players who can play, any
unsuccessful late window moves dial up the external panic. What that, and the
interest in Charlie Taylor, Connor Roberts and Ben Godfrey, show though is that
at the start of the window's end Leeds, at least, are trying.