Is Daniel Farke right to criticise Leeds’ lack of goalscoring ‘efficiency’? — The Athletic 9/2/24
By Phil Hay and Thom Harris
On the surface at Leeds United, there is not a lot for
Daniel Farke to be sniffy about: third in the Championship and a point off the
automatic promotion places, on a five-game league winning streak, clean sheets
aplenty and, by recent standards at Elland Road, a short and manageable injury
list as we approach the business end of the season.
Under the bonnet, the nuts and bolts of Leeds’ performances
and analytical data are healthy too, so much so that Farke was able to make
five changes on Tuesday night and watch his usual system chalk up an FA Cup
fourth-round win over fellow second-tier side Plymouth Argyle. There are
coaches out there with things to stress over, and Farke is a long way from the
top of that list.
So when he sat at the end of last Friday’s 1-0 away win
against Bristol City — decisive in terms of performance but not the scoreline —
and described himself as “annoyed” about the quality of his side’s finishing,
it was tempting to think the German was trying to find faults. No doubt Leeds
should have won that one by a wider margin, and the opportunity passed up by
Georginio Rutter in the first half was, statistically, the best they have
wasted all season but the result was job-done on a wet, windy evening.
“The only thing I need to criticise, and I have to criticise
this, is our efficiency in front of goal,” Farke said. “It’s an ongoing topic
and if I’m honest, it annoys me a little bit because if you want to celebrate
and have something to cheer about come May, we need to learn to score the goals
and put the chances away.”
Was this just Farke being picky or seeking to stop any
complacency from spreading? Or did he, actually, have a point?
In an automatic promotion contest that could easily come
down to very fine margins on that first weekend in May, are Leeds underselling
themselves when it comes to the final act of sticking the ball in the net?
Defensively, the numbers stack up to the tune of 12 clean sheets in their 30
games, less than a goal conceded per 90 minutes and only six Championship
matches all season in which they have conceded more than once. But what about
up front?
Leeds, as anyone can see, are a proficient attacking side,
with pace lending itself to counters, threat out wide and individual flair of a
standard beyond most other squads in the division. They have a tally of 52
goals after 30 fixtures and they create the second-highest number of ‘big
chances’ — a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score —
behind only leaders Leicester City (61 to their 70).
Farke has not trained his team to be gung-ho since his
summer appointment and it is common to see lulls in contests after they take
the lead, with sustained control preferred to attempts to go for the jugular.
Leeds invariably play with most abandon when they are trailing or chasing a
result. Few coaches follow the Marcelo Bielsa mantra of attacking from the
first whistle to the last, irrespective of the scoreboard.
In terms of their overall expected goals (xG) calculation,
Leeds are essentially on par: those 52 league goals scored against respected
data site fbref.com’s xG number of 52.5. But take out penalties and own goals
to give a true impression of how clinical they are in open play and it becomes
clear that Farke has a point.
Using that specific measure, Leeds should have registered
almost 50 goals so far but have scored 46 — an under-performance of 3.6.
It is important to say here that a negative deviation of 3.6
is neither the end of the world nor a crisis. But it creates a revealing
comparison with the rest of the Championship — and, more relevantly, the other
sides in the table’s top four: Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich Town.
Leeds are fourth-bottom among the division’s 24 clubs when
it comes to trying to match or exceed their xG from open play. Sunderland,
Stoke City and Sheffield Wednesday (the latter two both in the bottom five of
the league table) are the only three underperforming by more. And if Farke is a
disciple of data, he will know the reality for the sides in direct competition
with his for promotion is far better.
At present, Preston North End are out in front when it comes
to exceeding their open-play xG — by a huge margin of 8.8, without factoring in
penalties and own goals. But Leicester also fall into the positive category,
with an over-performance of 4.1 and so do Southampton, whose performance is 2.1
goals better than the data says it should be. Ipswich fall between both of
them, again with a positive number.
Leeds are the only side in the table’s top six who rank
negatively in the chart above.
Farke’s concern with that need not be excessive.
Leeds, as stated at the top of this article, are nicely
positioned in the Championship, a point behind Southampton, who have a game in
hand, having lost just six league fixtures this term. Their record of 18 wins
from 30 league matches shows they are very good at getting the job done.
Farke’s prime worry is likely to be that in games like the
one last Friday, when Leeds were so dominant against Bristol City but the
fixture was never dead and buried with a 1-0 lead, his players are prone to a
costly sting in the tail. And with the fight for that second automatic
promotion slot so tight, there are only so many points any of the clubs
involved can dare to drop.
Within Farke’s squad, there is one obvious source of more
goals.
So far, 12-goal Crysencio Summerville has been deadly with
his striking, surpassing his 10.2 xG by an impressive margin. Dan James is
ahead of his too (10 to 7.3) and Joel Piroe, with 10 goals, is bang on target.
But in Rutter, the exceptionally gifted Frenchman who has blossomed into a
serious livewire for Farke at No 10, the room for improvement in his finishing
is plain to see.
The statistics show he has been more wasteful than any other
player in the division, with five goals against an xG figure of 9.3. The chance
he failed to convert at Bristol City, a shot from close range that struck the
goalkeeper on the heel and looped over the crossbar, had an xG value of 0.88 —
not unmissable, but about as inviting as any forward can expect.
It is hard to point a finger at Rutter because he has been
wonderfully creative under Farke, serving up nine league assists. His total of
goal-creating actions (GCA) — a metric that tracks the last two actions before
a goal is scored — is second only to Leicester’s Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (19 to
23) and Rutter is a heartbeat in Farke’s unit. But he is also a player the
manager can look to for more lethal accuracy when chances fall to him, a player
for whom marginal but telling gains are realistic.
In that respect, these numbers might leave Farke with a
glass-half-full attitude.
Leicester, Southampton and fourth-placed Ipswich are beating
their statistical goalscoring benchmarks and could potentially regress towards
his team in terms of that metric over the weeks and months to come. Leeds, in
finishing terms, are falling below theirs and with the run-in on the horizon,
it suggests there is still another level they can find or another gear they can
reach.
Farke does not often speak about promotion but last Friday
was a rare moment when he felt the need to spell it out.
It will not be long before this season’s chips are down, and
it is obvious to him where an extra edge might be found.