Daniel Farke Leeds United job interview insight and five-year proof reveals specific transfer need - YEP 24/7/23

Leeds United's first summer signing was a defensive one and their second might well be a goalkeeper but Daniel Farke has goals on the brain.

By Graham Smyth

In his presentation to the Leeds board, Farke came prepared with statistics and data, including the number of goals he believes it will take to win the 2023/24 Championship title, or at least to earn automatic promotion.

Coming to a precise prediction is a difficult task yet recent history grants an insight into the levels of team and individual goalscoring required to achieve what Leeds would like to in the upcoming campaign.

Over the past five years the second tier title winners have scored 88 goals, on average. While Farke's Norwich and Fulham may skew the data a little with their 93 and 106 goal tallies respectively, zooming out further to take in the past decade reveals an average of 86 to lift the trophy.

Automatic promotion has required an average of 80 goals over the last five years, with the runners-up scoring 73 on average in that timeframe.

The phrase 'defence wins championships' was once trotted out by the famous manager of that club across the Pennines and has become a mantra in various sports over the years, but while keeping the opposition out is of obvious importance, goals win games.

The last five Championship champions have needed at least 90 points to finish first. The last five runners-up have required at least 83 to finish above the play-offs. Good luck clean sheeting your way to a title, in a division as competitive and wildly unpredictable as this one.

If Leeds are to book a summer 2024 reunion with the Premier League, their path will be paved by goals.

Where, then, will they come from? It is a difficult question to answer, given the uncertainty surrounding so many of the players currently in Farke's squad, be they attackers or otherwise. In the wide areas, where so much of the service and attacking menace could be generated, there are no fewer than four players whose Leeds futures carry question marks of varying size. Jack Harrison's injury might put off prospective Premier League buyers but a September return date could be enough to tempt one into a bid. Ever since relegation Crysencio Summerville has been spoken about in terms of the possible exits, perhaps because he - like Willy Gnonto - would represent actual profit. Gnonto is the one you could see attracting serious money, although if Luis Sinisterra stays fit over the summer then his ability level could easily draw big league attention.

It is in the current central options that Farke arguably has the most concrete idea of his post-deadline remainers. Patrick Bamford, Georginio Rutter and Mateo Joseph are all expected to stay, with only Sonny Perkins slated for a possible loan move.

That trio, given their various profiles and skillsets, might well be considered enough were it not for variables that should keep the Leeds transfer department up at night, namely Bamford's injury problems and the unproven nature of Rutter and Joseph's goalscoring ability at a senior level in the English game. They could fire Leeds to a title, they could just as easily not.

A former Leeds attacker recently remarked in an off-the-record discussion of the club's transfer business, that a 20-goal striker is an absolute must because of the lack of guarantees for that magic tally in the current line-up. It might not be a hard and fast rule but it's certainly no myth to suggest a 20-goal man is vital.

Half of the last 10 automatic promotion winners had one within their ranks. For Farke's two titles at Norwich it was Teemu Pukki, with 29 and 26 goals, Fulham applied the Aleksandar Mitrovic cheat code in the 2021/22 season with his 43-goal haul and across the last decade the likes of Dwight Gayle, Callum Wilson, Andre Gray, David Nugent, Billy Sharp and Dominic Solanke have all got 20 or more.

Bamford has the ability, but does he have the durability? Even if Leeds did supplement with a man you would bet your house on to finish the season with a bucket-load of goals, Bamford would still retain huge value as a player with proven double-figure finishing prowess.

Taking a top-two spot without at least two players hitting double figures is a rare achievement. Luton last season had the 20-man but no one else in double figures and had to settle for the play-offs.

Leeds of course did it a little differently under Marcelo Bielsa with only Bamford surpassing 10. Five others scored five or more and a further trio hit four. Goals do have to come from everywhere - Farke's 2020/21 side had 16 individuals who hit the net in league action, his 2018/19 team had 17.

On Saturday after the Monaco friendly the manager was talking goals again.

"We need a bit more end product out of midfield, I think this also when you analyse last season there were not too many goals out of the midfield positions and it's definitely something what we're looking for, too, to find the right quality and also then the finances to sign," he said.

"It's also not that easy, not for us and probably we have to be a bit patient."

What the squad appears to need, on the face of it, is not just a stone cold nine to find the net but a red-hot 10 to find the last pass.

Emi Buendia was a nightmare for the Championship in Farke's Norwich side, scoring and creating almost at will. Pablo Hernandez was a similar figure for Bielsa's Leeds.

Whether it's a natural central attacking midfielder who arrives in the window or a solution who pops up from the current options - Joe Gelhardt and Summerville were tried on Saturday - Leeds must find their magic man.

"I'm not so addicted too much to a position so I have also learned during my life as a coach, when you don't have a proper number 10, you have to play without 10," said Farke.

"We definitely need a bit more creativity but it doesn't have to be natural, proper number 10, like perhaps the old fashioned number 10. You could also do this with different types of players, but we definitely need also a bit more creativity, who will find the pass, who sets up perhaps the second to last class pass."

All of this perhaps goes a little way to explaining why Farke focused so heavily, almost entirely, on in-possession play when he first arrived at Thorp Arch. The Monaco game did represent a step forward from the Manchester United game and it did bring good chances for Luke Ayling and Sinisterra. The biggest opportunity fell to Bamford, whose knack of being in the right place has not abandoned him, he just couldn't finish it.

Judging Leeds on two friendlies, against top league sides, is unfair. Judging them this week against Nottingham Forest and Hearts, with a finished article squad still so far from Farke's grasp, might be too. At some stage, however, very soon, the goals are going to have to start flowing.