The stats behind Leeds United’s start to the season: Wild, weird, wonderful — Square Ball 13/9/24

Typical Leeds

Written by: Jonny Cooper

August seemed to be a month of threes for Leeds: a 3-3 draw on opening day, followed by a 3-0 defeat in the cup, followed by three clean sheets. According to the song, three is a magic number, but it didn’t seem that way after our third game of August, our third goalless draw of 2024. Two lots of three points to end the month suddenly makes everything look a lot better, and our number three is currently the joint most creative Championship player this year with nine assists. Let’s take a deeper statistical look at August.

Leeds 3 Portsmouth 3

It may be a little-known fact, and whether you would class this as a record is entirely up to you, but Leeds do hold the longest run in Football League history of unbeaten opening games, a run of twenty between 1990 and 2009 in which Leeds didn’t lose on the opening day of the league season. Since then, there’s been some high points (Luke Murphy against Brighton, Stoke under Marcelo Bielsa) and some low points (hammered at QPR and Man Utd) to kick seasons off.

Leeds hadn’t faced Portsmouth in the opener since 1930, a 2-2 draw in the top flight. In fact, Leeds and Portsmouth haven’t been regular opponents for quite a number of years — February 2012 was the last meeting, a goalless draw in Neil Warnock’s first official game in charge, which he ended by approaching the away following and giving them a fist pump. Portsmouth were second bottom and could only name four substitutes, half of which played for Leeds the following season in Jamie Ashdown and David Norris.

This time around, Leeds came out the blocks quickly and hit the woodwork a seemingly improbable three times in the opening seven minutes, the first Championship side to hit the post three times in the opening half of a match since Coventry against Luton in March 2021, and the first time Leeds had done so in a single half of football since the second half of a goalless draw against Arsenal in November 2020.

It brought back reminders of Rotherham away in November 2004, when centre-half Clarke Carlisle hit the woodwork three times in the opening eight minutes of the game without scoring. He rolled his ankle on the third attempt and was subbed after thirteen minutes. Naturally, Leeds lost 1-0, as Rotherham ended their 21-match winless run.

The luck seemed to be turning after ten minutes against Portsmouth when Pascal Struijk converted a penalty, only the third time this century Leeds’ opening goal of the season was from the spot, alongside 2006/07 (David Healy vs Norwich) and 2011/12 (Max Gradel vs Southampton). It was also a third-consecutive scoring appearance for Struijk, having netted against Ipswich and Preston last December before injury curtailed his season, becoming the first Leeds United central defender to score in three appearances in a row since Jack Charlton in March 1972, one of which was in the famous 7-0 hammering of Southampton. Charlton was also the last player wearing the number five shirt to score a penalty, in March 1963 against Derby.

Struijk also became the first number five to score in the opening game since Chris Fairclough in 1990 against Everton, and first player overall to score a penalty in consecutive appearances since Luciano Becchio in October 2012.

Last season, Leeds scored the opening goal in 23 Championship matches and won 21 of them, drawing the other two, keeping 17 clean sheets and never once conceding more than one goal in a game.

41 minutes into the new campaign: Leeds United 1-2 Portsmouth. Sake.

Championship games when Leeds scored first and then conceded twice have tended to be memorable: 3-2 vs Blackburn on Boxing Day 2018, 1-2 vs Wigan on Good Friday 2019, 2-4 vs Derby in May 2019, 3-3 vs Cardiff and 5-4 vs Birmingham in December 2019. Until Portsmouth, these were the only games across the previous three campaigns at this level that had happened. It was the first time Leeds had scored first in a Championship match and gone in behind at the break since April 2016 against Hull, while at Elland Road it was the first time since September 2012, also against Hull.

In the second half, Portsmouth had three touches in Leeds’ box and just one shot from inside the box, but it seemed to be enough to win the game 3-2 via a stoppage-time Callum Lang penalty. Portsmouth had five shots and scored three. Leeds, up to that point, had twenty shots and scored two.

Step forward Brenden Aaronson. Aaronson scored in his third game for Leeds against Chelsea but then went 37 appearances without a goal before he scored the latest Championship goal of the Saturday matches, timed at 94 minutes and 21 seconds to equalise and make it 3-3.

The only two shots Leeds have had in the 90th minute or later of a Championship game this season have been from Brenden Aaronson against Portsmouth. Both were from near identical positions. One went in. The other, well, didn’t.

A graphic of Brenden Aaronson's two shots against Portsmouth on the opening day of the season. They're both from more or less the same position. One went in, one didn't. Sake.

Leeds posted an xG of 3.39, bettered by just one team in a Championship match so far this season, and a total that only two sides accumulated more of without winning during all of last season. It was also Leeds’ best xG total at Elland Road since hammering Stoke 5-0 in those heady days of July 2020. Leeds were, it’s fair to say, rather unlucky not to win the game.

The only other time Leeds had drawn 3-3 on the opening day was in 1996/97 against Derby. That season then saw a Premier League record nine goalless draws and just 28 goals scored, while sacking a manager early into the season who just a few months earlier had lost at Wembley. Surely it won’t be the same again?

Leeds 0 Middlesbrough 3

Although Leeds United’s cup record in recent years (well, frankly, always) has bordered on the absurd, the first round of the League Cup usually provides a safe haven. In eighteen ties before this season, Leeds progressed seventeen times, failing only in a penalty shootout against Doncaster in 2015/16.

Players have the chance to shine — think Ramon Nunez against Bradford, Souleymane Doukara against Accrington and a Samuel Saiz debut hat-trick against Port Vale. It also offers fringe players valuable minutes to impress, whether that be the Leeds coaching staff or other clubs looking for options while the transfer window is open. Leeds never lost in the League Cup first round. Why should this year be any different?

Leeds had four of the first seven shots in what was a fairly even opening 25 minutes. By the time they had another attempt in the 69th minute, they were 3-0 down, the first time Leeds have ever conceded three in the League Cup first round, and the first time Leeds had gone in goalless at half-time and then lost by three goals since January 2021, when Crawley Town brought on reality TV personality Mark Wright to see out a 3-0 win in the FA Cup. At Elland Road, it had only happened three times before in our entire history and one of those was against Middlesbrough in January 2004. It was also Leeds’ heaviest August defeat at Elland Road since a 4-0 loss to Norwich in 1993.

News in the aftermath of defeat that it would be Georginio Rutter’s final appearance rubbed salt into the wounds, although if Brighton do make the final it means we won’t have to witness Georginio featuring at Wembley as he is now cup-tied. He joins a stellar list of players to make their final Leeds appearances in the League Cup first round, among them Steve Guppy (who also wore the number 24 shirt), Mike Grella, Zac Thompson and Noel Hunt.

For the first time in 65 years, Leeds conceded three goals in each of their first two games of a season. Leeds had only let in eight goals in their first seventeen games in 2024 but a porous run of three clean sheets in thirteen games had resulted in 22 conceded. What we really needed was a clean sheet.

West Brom 0 Leeds 0

Leeds hadn’t drawn 0-0 at the Hawthorns since 1978, but a goal never looked likely in this even game. Both sides shared the same xG (0.7), the same number of shots (eight), shots on target (one) and big chances (one). This game had the fewest shots on target (two) and touches in the opposition box (nineteen) across both teams of any Championship match so far this season, which passed the general eye test — it was incredibly dull.

Without Rutter to provide some spontaneous magic, Leeds’ six touches in West Brom’s box was their lowest in a Championship match since having three in a particularly limp display against Millwall in September 2017. Leeds’ passing numbers also suffered in this game — in only two games under Daniel Farke have Leeds completed fewer passes (281) or had a lower pass accuracy (79.1%) than in this match.

A stats graphic from Leeds' 0-0 draw with West Brom, which is far more interesting than the game itself

Before this season, the last side in the second tier to have a 3-3 draw in game number one then draw 0-0 in game two was Grimsby Town in 1994/95. This season, both Leeds and Portsmouth did it. Funny old game.

Sheffield Wednesday 0 Leeds 2

For only the 11th time ever, three goalkeepers were named in Leeds United’s matchday squad. While not much of a milestone, one of those goalkeepers is Alex Cairns, whose previous appearance in a squad was on the final day of the 2014/15 season against Rotherham United. Alongside him that day were Billy Sharp, little Aidy White, Brian Montenegro, Granddi Ngoyi, Casper Sloth and Kalvin Phillips. A snapshot of Leeds United history if ever there was one. Keeping Cairns off the pitch was Stuart Taylor, making just the 75th league appearance of his goalkeeping career at the age of 34. He never made another.

Sheffield Wednesday started the season with a 4-0 hammering of Plymouth but followed that with a 4-0 defeat at Sunderland in their second game, the first team to do this in the top four tiers of English football since Blackpool in 2010/11. They’d only lost four of eighteen Championship games at Hillsborough under Danny Röhl, one of which was against Leeds in March. That Leeds line-up featured Archie Gray, Glen Kamara, Georgi Rutter, Crysencio Summerville and Pat Bamford. This one had Jayden Bogle, Pascal Struijk, Brenden Aaronson, Dan James and Mateo Joseph instead.

The result was the same: 2-0 to Leeds United. Back-to-back wins at Hillsborough for the first time since 2000.

Defensively, Leeds were far more solid. Since facing eleven shots on target in their first two games, West Brom and Sheffield Wednesday had managed just three combined and two of those were shots from outside the box. Wednesday had managed to create just 0.43 by way of xG, down from 4.68 they’d managed in their previous home game against Plymouth (the most by a Championship team in the last two seasons, no less). Leeds also kept hold of the ball much better — having a better accuracy in Wednesday’s half of the pitch (82.9%) than they’d managed anywhere on the pitch against West Brom (79.1%).

Aaronson scored again and now has more goals this season than he’d managed in forty games in 2022/23. All three of his goals have come in August — making a good early impression is clearly important to him — with only Ramon Nunez scoring more goals for Leeds with all of them coming in August (five in 2011). I was at Nunez’s last game in a Leeds shirt, a development game against Wigan in September 2012. His screams after snapping his cruciate ligament have stayed with me for twelve years.

Leeds also continued their excellent form when scoring first away from home in the Championship — across their last four seasons at this level, Leeds have scored first in 31 away games and won thirty, drawing the other at Rotherham last season. Since that game last November, Leeds have scored first in seven away games, scoring sixteen goals and conceding none. The last side to beat Leeds in the Championship at home when conceding first? Daniel Farke’s Norwich in April 2018.

Both of Leeds’ goals were assisted by Joseph, who became the youngest Whites striker with two assists in a game since Alan Smith in October 2000 against Charlton. Hopefully Joseph doesn’t join Scum, but the second goal was scored by a player who moved the other way, with Dan James continuing his excellent record: Leeds have won every single game (all thirteen of them) under Daniel Farke when James has found the net.

It was also a personal milestone for Farke himself — his 100th Championship victory in just his 190th game at this level. The last manager to have done better than that in the second tier dates back to 1903, Harry Bradshaw of Arsenal, whose 100th win was in his 179th game. While not all managers stick around long enough at this level to achieve that type of feat, it puts into context Farke’s achievements and knowhow at Championship level.

Leeds 2 Hull 0

Largie Ramazani signed for Leeds too late to play against Sheffield Wednesday the previous Friday but was now available for the Hull match, as were other new signings, Manor Solomon and Ao Tanaka. All three players made their debuts in this match, the first time three players have all made their league debuts in a game that wasn’t the opening day since August 2014 against Middlesbrough, when Liam Cooper, Tommaso Bianchi and Billy Sharp made their bows.

Sharp netted the winner in that game against Middlesbrough and while none of the three players did that against Hull, Solomon assisted Mateo Joseph’s goal and in turn became the first Leeds player to assist a goal on his debut since Barry Douglas in Marcelo Bielsa’s first game in August 2018 against Stoke. Tanaka made a late sub appearance and managed twenty touches and eighteen completed passes — only thirteen fewer than the entire Hull team from when he joined the action in the 86th minute.

Ao Tanaka's pass map from his debut against Hull

Curiously, 50% of Ao Tanaka’s name is the letter A, with only Bobby Webb appearing for the club with a higher percentage of one letter in his name (56% with the letter B). His name also contains 62.5% vowels, which is the second most of any player to play for Leeds, behind the late Ugo Ehiogu.

Leeds’ passing improved once again against Hull, an accuracy of 90.5% that was the third best under Daniel Farke, while they completed 84.4% of their passes in the final third, the best under Farke and best by a Championship side in a match this season, suggesting attacking cohesion is in action. In fact, since 2013/14, the only league match in which Leeds have had a better passing accuracy in the final third was against Derby in July 2020 (86.1%), the game after promotion was secured.

A graphic of Leeds United's final third passes against Hull

It was also yet another clean sheet. Hull may have produced the best open play xG in a league game against Leeds this season, but that only amounted to 0.38. Overall, Leeds have faced 0.98 open play xG, the fewest of any side in the entirety of the EFL in the opening four matches. From conceding three goals on opening day, Leeds now have the joint most clean sheets in the Championship and only Middlesbrough (27) have faced fewer shots than Leeds (thirty) this season.

An ever-present part of that defence has been Junior Firpo, although it is his attacking prowess that has been most impressive: in 2024, no player has more Championship assists than Firpo, with his assist for Joel Piroe against Hull his ninth of this calendar year. Piroe himself has impressive goal-scoring numbers: 56 Championship goals in the last four seasons, thirteen more than anyone else and a total only five players can better across England’s top four tiers.

A graphic of Junior Firpo's nine Championship assists for Leeds in 2024

The numbers are looking good again for Leeds. In the Championship this season, Leeds are: second for shots on target (21), second bottom for shots on target faced (nine) and joint top for clean sheets (three). They are top for successful passes (1,823), top for passing accuracy both overall (86.3%) and in the final third (75.8%), while being second for average possession (58%).

Eight of the previous thirteen Championship winners have had eight or fewer points after four matches, and two of those were Daniel Farke at Norwich. Keep the faith.