Predictably unpredictable - The Square Ball 11/5/22

BRUISED AUBERGINE

Written by: Steven York

This season Leeds have managed to exist in a limbo state between surprise and predictability. Where the achingly dull ‘win every game’ philosophies of Manchester City and Liverpool are clearly effective — as is Norwich City’s ‘lose every game’ — we have carved a little area for ourselves where surprises are both shocking and expected.

When Stuart Dallas leapt into a challenge he didn’t strictly need to make and was left punching the ground in the agony a femoral fracture obviously brings, I expected it. Of course Leeds were going to lose their most reliable utility player at a time when we needed him most.

When Leeds most desperately needed some calm and confident football to steady the nerves, balanced precariously over the Premier League’s cliff edge, of course Illan Meslier chose this moment to make a horrible mistake. You couldn’t predict that in the fifth minute of a crucial game our dependable and overworked goalkeeper might commit such an egregious error. But I didn’t react with surprise. I reacted with the grim acceptance that this kind of thing is exactly what Leeds do in moments like these.

Luke Ayling isn’t known for violent conduct or particularly rash decision-making, but chose a game Leeds could not afford to lose, and were losing, to get the second red card of his career — when, fittingly enough, our only other established right-back had already broken his femur the week before. Leeds, now facing three consecutive cup finals to avoid relegation, must play them without two of the most trustworthy seniors.

It’s this strange phenomenon that I’ve only ever really felt with Leeds United. Unexpected things happen in ways, and at times, that somehow make them feel preordained or familiar.

We’re told there’s no way the club could have anticipated how unlucky they’d have been with injuries, yet post-Bielsa people have been quite willing to hint at overtraining being a factor. We’re told that losing Pat Bamford and Kalvin Phillips for such long stretches was beyond the kind of misfortune that a club can sensibly plan for, yet we’ve been lamenting the lack of back-up in both areas for years. Is this more a case of being unprepared than it is of being victim to the unexpected?

There’s an argument to be made that Andrea Radrizzani deferred too much to Marcelo Bielsa. Bielsa may, for his own reasons, desire a small squad. A squad that risks being badly exposed if only two or three key players are injured. The responsible action of an owner, in a very parental sense, is to save the head coach from themselves. There has been a tangible absence of forward thinking with regards to Leeds United post-Bielsa, too, which speaks to a lack of preparation. If we can concede — with all the love in the world — that the squad is man-for-man weaker than most in the league, then the ownership structure has a responsibility to improve it. That responsibility counts double when you remove the head coach who was capable of amplifying those players’ abilities beyond their natural levels.

Leeds have gone from being defensively fragile but energetic, albeit wasteful, in attack to just being defensively fragile. We’ve lost the intense unpredictability that garnished some spectacular losses. We might have lost 4-2 to Scum, but we had sixteen attempts to score. Under Marsch, we’re creating far fewer, and still losing anyway.

It’s unprecedented that Leeds would lose so many key players in key positions, yet it’s the exact kind of scenario diligent clubs expect and prepare for. If Angus Kinnear’s now infamous remarks about investing in youth were a way of managing expectations with regards to senior recruitment, the fact the Under-23s have just been relegated from Premier League 2 Division One suggests one of two things: either we don’t know what we’re doing, or we’re poor at doing it.

Either the recruitment represents an unprecedented number of coin tosses landing on tails when we needed heads, or we’re just doing the wrong things. It’s easy to hang a figurative albatross around the head of a specific scapegoat (in the way that Scum have managed to make Harry Maguire a villain when he’s not even playing), but our recruitment makes it a simple game to play. Junior Firpo has received a huge amount of criticism since joining from Barcelona for nearly £13m, for looking largely incapable of attacking or defending. Gjanni Alioski, for all his flaws, was better than this.

Did Leeds need Dan James more than they needed cover in central midfield? Did Leeds need Rodrigo when we desperately needed a Pablo Hernandez replacement? Did Leeds need to gamble on a left-back who was used so sparingly in La Liga when a stable known-quantity would have been a more sensible move?

It’s a lack of preparation that is dragging us down. Marcelo Bielsa’s magic formula elevated a set of average ingredients into something quite remarkable. But, over time, the unexpected flavours of the dish became more familiar and by proxy, less effective. By the time Radrizzani decided Bielsa’s Ratatouille was no longer winning awards, the incoming Jesse Marsch had little more than a pile of bruised aubergine and courgette to Ready Steady Cook into Premier League survival.

Whatever happens next is deserved. There are no more surprises. If Leeds can outperform Burnley then survival, and presumably the decision to swap head coach, will be justified. If that doesn’t happen and we parachute back down to the EFL, I doubt many will shed a tear for Radrizzani.

Perhaps the most unprecedented thing that could happen now is Leeds surviving in spite of a lack of preparation. Expect nothing, expect anything.