Leeds United 49ers and Javi Gracia decision key to green light for summer Plan A - YEP 30/3/23

So much of Leeds United's potential summer 2024 transfer window activity will be dictated by the 'r' word but regardless of their division, there are areas Victor Orta will have to target.

By Graham Smyth

Dropping out of the Premier League, indeed even the idea of battling against relegation for a second successive season, was deemed 'impossible' by Andrea Radrizzani at the outset of a campaign that has not quite gone to plan.

Their Premier League win over Wolves, the second of Javi Gracia's Elland Road tenure, lifted them to 14th in the table and into the positions Radrizzani expected to be competing for, yet they started that day just prior to the international break second from bottom.

Relegation fears were at the heart of the decision to sack Jesse Marsch in February and he was eventually replaced by Gracia, after a number of initial candidates elected not to take the Leeds job.

Gracia's arrival, which broadly met with the approval of the fanbase, has had the desired effect so far, seven points from a possible 12 doing much to alleviate relegation concerns that were bordering on resignation. Prior to Gracia it was difficult to see where the necessary wins were coming from but beating Southampton and Wolves, two of those considered candidates for the drop, has renewed optimism around Elland Road.

Beating the drop is important for so many reasons, some of which will have a direct and significant impact on the club's short, medium and long-term direction of travel.

Although the 49ers' planned takeover does not necessarily hinge on staying up, it's very much the preferred outcome for the American finance vehicle, who got involved with a Championship club but always had their eyes fixed on Premier League status. Survival would allow for a smoother and swifter transition of power and give the green light for the club's recruitment Plan A to proceed, as they build towards a more comfortable Premier League existence.

Plan B, should the worst case scenario unfold, would be a lot more complicated, a moveable feast with a number of players - several at least - likely to eschew a second-tier existence with Leeds, however short it might be, in order to seek immediate top flight football elsewhere. Leeds protected themselves through the contract clauses of their players upon promotion, just in case the Premier League stay was brief, but a number of sales would seem desirable to keep the books as sustainable as possible. It could quite easily take on the feel of a much bigger rebuild with far more ins and outs than would be otherwise necessary.

The far simpler option would be keeping the majority of this squad together and recruiting to strengthen, in the Premier League for Gracia, or whoever is put in charge for the 2023/24 campaign. Even if his time at Leeds concludes in the summer, Gracia remains absolutely key to letting Orta work on his preferred plan in the next transfer window.

To that end, there is some work to do.

Goalkeeping

At some stage a club boasting European football is going to test Leeds' mettle when it comes to Illan Meslier but he hasn't been so stellar this season as to make a departure feel inevitable - at least not if Leeds stay up. Keeping him in place ensures the Whites have a top flight quality number one and he's contracted to 2026 in any case. Joel Robles, still only 32, has provided more than adequate back up for the Frenchman this season and though he is out of contract it would feel like sensible business to keep him around. Kris Klaesson has some thinking to do, however. His season has comprised seven Premier League 2 appearances and an EFL Trophy tie and he hasn't made a Premier League matchday team sheet since November. If he is to go, Leeds will undoubtedly bring in another youngster and have been heavily linked with Senne Lammens, a 20-year-old Belgian at Club NXT who is out of contract this summer.

Defence

The left-back itch was due to be scratched in January but the player Leeds signed, Max Wober, has played almost exclusively at centre-back. Junior Firpo's recent form suggests there might be an Elland Road future for him beyond this season but the lack of natural left-backs elsewhere at the club needs to be addressed this summer.

At right-back the picture is relatively straightforward insofar as Luke Ayling and Rasmus Kristensen will remain under contract and Cody Drameh will return from a loan spell at Luton Town. The youngster could be the club's future in that position but he will have to be convinced that there is game time on offer at Leeds. His 2024 contract expiration makes a departure very possible so another prospect at right-back would be a prudent addition. The alternative is to start grooming Drameh as Ayling's successor with an immediacy that proves there is a pathway for him at Elland Road.

If Charlie Cresswell returns and Leeds keep their current centre-backs in situ they have a decent amount of cover, although Robin Koch's desire to re-enter the German national team picture might present an issue. There has already been some noise about his future and an exit would necessitate a right-sided centre-back replacement. An upgrade on Koch would likely cost a significant sum given the going rate for central defenders, so keeping him seems optimal.

Midfield

Adam Forshaw's contract is up in the summer and injury issues that have restricted him to five Premier League appearances make an extension seem unlikely. Weston McKennie's permanent move, in the event of Leeds staying up, reportedly hinges on him making 10 appearances and he's almost there. He, Marc Roca and Tyler Adams give the club options with differing traits in the middle and Darko Gyabi will surely start to figure with increased regularity at senior level next term, if he does not go out on loan. Sam Greenwood and Archie Gray also remain in reserve, while Lewis Bate's return is another consideration. A Championship loan might be his next step. If there was to be an urgent transfer priority in the midfield it would be in a more attacking role, someone to split defences open like Pablo Hernandez did. The senior midfield options don't currently offer that final third flair. A young understudy for Adams, in the defensive enforcer mould, would also be ideal if the budget allowed because neither Roca nor McKennie fit his role perfectly.

Attack

Much will depend on the outcome of Leeds' contract talks with Jack Harrison, when it comes to potential recruitment out wide. Willy Gnonto, Crysencio Summerville and a fit Luis Sinisterra give Leeds three excellent options on the flanks and if Harrison pens a new deal to remain that makes four. There is also Georginio Rutter to consider, as a player who could conceivably play out wide. From what we have seen of the record signing, he's raw but with huge potential as an attacker but not so much a number nine. It's a somewhat similar story with Brenden Aaronson. If they were to go into the market for a winger then there is definitely room for a 21s signing and perhaps Ilias Akhomach of Barcelona B will fill that gap.

All of that leaves Leeds in a familiar position, deciding whether or not they can risk running with Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo as their senior centre forward options for another season. A goalscoring targetman, someone in the Bamford mould, would definitely be a wise move.

Manager

The most important decision of the summer, outside the takeover situation. If Gracia keeps Leeds in the Premier League and wants a crack at building his own team then it will be hard to argue that it isn’t deserved. These are still the early days of his tenure yet he has already shown a tactical flexibility that has helped secure an important points haul. Gracia’s composure has also been key. Whether Leeds have crisis-managed their way into appointing the man to take the project to the next level remains to be seen. It would be fascinating to learn what kind of team he would try to build, given some say in the recruitment process. If a more patient possession-based style was the way he wanted to go, a few more ball-playing technicians in various positions might be just the ticket.