New Leeds United 10-in-a-row revelation points toward Premier League despite falling short of club record — YEP 4/3/24

Leeds United have not conceded a Championship goal from open play since 2023 during a 1-0 defeat by West Bromwich Albion at The Hawthorns.

By Joe Donnohue

Saturday afternoon’s frustrating draw with Huddersfield Town denied Leeds what appeared, on paper at least, a golden chance to break the club’s consecutive wins record by stretching their existing run from nine to ten games. Michał Helik’s goal during the first half at the John Smith’s Stadium was only the third time Leeds had conceded in the league since the turn of the year, but proved enough to stop their local rivals in their tracks.

All three occasions have arisen at opposition set-plays, however, including during the second phase when a ball is half-cleared but comes back into the area with ostensibly the same number of attacking players in and around the box. This means Leeds’ last Championship concession from open play came 67 days ago. In that time, the Whites have played 900 minutes of league football, a figure much closer to 1,000 in actuality, when taking stoppages at the end of first and second halves into account.

While those of a glass-half-empty disposition may suggest Leeds all of a sudden have a problem when it comes to set-pieces, the data says otherwise. In fact, their defending of set-plays is superior to each of their direct promotion rivals Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton.

According to football data experts Opta, Leeds have conceded 7.52 xG from set-pieces this season, allowing six actual goals from such scenarios. Only four teams in the division - none of whom are in the top four - have conceded a lower xG total from set-pieces, while no team has allowed fewer than six goals. Leeds are tied with several clubs in that particular metric, however.

Over the same ten-game period, Leeds’ total xG Conceded (xGC) is 7.35 - an average of 0.74 xGC per game. Allowing three actual goals during this time-frame suggests the Whites have ridden their luck a little when it comes to the chances they’ve given away, but that should not detract from what is an excellent defensive record, regardless.

Furthermore, the three Championship goals Leeds have conceded since the turn of the year have all been from close range and categorised as ‘big chances’ - defined as having an Expected Goals value greater than 0.30 xG. Cumulatively, the trio has accounted for 1.61 of United’s 7.35 xGC total. Doubtless, there have been other chances for opposing teams originating at set-plays, meaning the xGC allowed by Leeds from open play situations over the past ten games - in which Farke’s side have taken 28 of 30 available points - is much closer to, and possibly even below, 0.50 xGC per game.

Should Leeds maintain a similar performance level between now and the end of the season, which with Ethan Ampadu and Joe Rodon at the back seems plausible, their opponents could be expected to score from open play every other game. Considering the attacking talent available, Daniel Farke can certainly mitigate for one concession every 180 minutes.

There were cries of complacency and disappointment on social media after Leeds were held down the road last weekend, but to use perhaps the most clichéd phrase in football, they were due one. Teams will come to Elland Road between now and the end of the season attempting to employ the same tactics Huddersfield were so effective at carrying out on Saturday, and Leeds will be met with a similar approach at grounds they are yet to visit. But that is what teams have tried to do for much of this season already, and not so effectively, given Leeds are on course to finish with 98 points at their current rate measured across the entire campaign.

Panic stations after nine wins and one draw from the last ten? Let’s not get carried away - especially when the Leicester City bullet train has been down for maintenance the last three games and Russell Martin’s goal-happy Saints are having a few defensive issues of their own, even if their recent ding-dong battles have ended in their favour. Southampton still have trips to the King Power Stadium, Portman Road and Elland Road to contend with before the season is done, too.

Leeds are, as they have been since the opening few games of the season, chugging along nicely. Farke’s advice to his players, which he has reiterated on several occasions this term, could perhaps be heeded by those in the stands whose faith wavered at the weekend - don’t get too high after a win, don’t be too low after a defeat and don’t underestimate the value of a point on the road.

The way this team, boasting the fewest goals conceded in the Championship, have defended of late, both on the eye and in the numbers, suggests they are headed in one direction only.