The Leeds United Miserablist Column; coming out for the new season
Clarkeonenil.com 1/8/12
Michael Green
The Miserablist has left the building but his spirit is kept by our editorial team. Thus from this point on the miserablist is Michael Green and he is doing a Wednesday weekly column.
As much as I would rather take over the mantle of miserablist after the takeover is complete and in truth when Neil Warnock has been removed from his divisive influence on the footballing side, a bit like waiting for a squad full of committed, quality footballers it may never happen so I had best get on with it.
So where are we this fine August morning? Well after months of speculation our owner is still Mr K W Bates. He still has his trusted cohorts in place and the club is still a byword for customer relations dysfunctionalism. One change has taken place, Bates himself is keeping his mouth closed and for that we all give a sigh of relief. Now it won’t do anyone much good to repeat the arguments used constantly on this site as to why his “imminent” departure would be a good thing but it would probably be a good idea to set out, from this miserablist perspective, where we are takeover wise, and that is all over the shop for now!
Facts are hard to garner but we can say a variety of things, however before that we should also point out some truths about ourselves very evident from the drawn out takeover. For example if one good thing is to come out of this protracted takeover it will be this: a clear understanding that the vast majority of Leeds United fans on Twitter and other social media are clearly stupid, pathetic and clueless. Nothing will ever bring the months of my life back that has disappeared for ever since I first got whiff of a realistic takeover. Absolutely nothing, in terms of the details made available in that time has changed. I am as frustrated as anyone (in fact probably more so as I have put in more effort than most to see the back of the present ownership) and I certainly have no truck with the “be patient” brigade but I think 99.99999999999999999999% of speculation and comment has frankly being wasteful idiocy!
Rather however than continue to berate those responsible for this outbreak of mindlessness this article would rather state what in my opinion is clearly how things stand and thus ensure that if it takes another 5/10/15 days to sort things out at least the comments that abound can be set within realistic parameters. So the realities as seen by me are:
* The club is in a process that will lead to control of Leeds United being placed in new hands.
* The club has given a consortium exclusive access to the books to do due diligence.
* It is highly likely that the due diligence process is already complete.
* A price has been agreed, this is not a reason why the sale hasn’t been announced.
* The Leeds United Supporters Trust have been as open as they feel they can with the information they have been party to, personally I would have preferred them to be even more direct about things but as they say, learn to walk before running.
* The general geographical area of the funds has been identified and speculated on widely and is only rubbished by idiots. It is a matter for speculation whether the nationality of the main funder is a “fit and proper” test matter. We need also to remember again it is a consortium involved so it may involve more than one country.
* It is very probable that the process now is in the hands of lawyers doting I’s and crossing T’s, as likely as not about confidentiality. We also now understand a off-shore Bahrain bank is involved.
* It is not normal for clubs to engage in the level of signings the club has recently whilst in the process of a sale unless usually the buyers have sanctioned the activity. However as the Snodgrass sale showed we seem to be bringing in money like we usually have since 2007 but also spending more money in the dying embers of the present regime than we have for years (although still at relatively low levels). It has been speculated some in advance funding as been secured from somewhere but the evidence is scant.
* Consortium’s imply multi sources of funding, this is both good and bad news as it implies sustainability but knocks on the head being the new Manchester City.
* It could be months before we see the culture of the club change, it is rather like a super-tanker in that regard.
I could go on at even more length but basically this is where we are. The only other thing I will say about ownership is we should not assume the figureheads on day one of completion will be around 6 months later.
So what do we think the upshot of it all will be? Well I have to be honest, if I wasn’t in a PITK loop (P stands for partly) I would have given up on it happening by now. My instincts and miserablism would have pronounced this a Norwegian Blue takeover about 3 weeks ago. What sustains me in the hope something positive will happen is Bates’s continued silence, once he returns to the fray no amount of drip feeding will sustain me, regardless of source. But let us park that thought and concentrate on what we think will happen if that negativity has no basis? Well, notwithstanding possible complexities arising from the choice of off-shore fund holding, we can assume the club will have more investment available to it than it has since 1999, however that level of investment won’t go as far.
Let us take a random dream figure of £200m which is double the rumoured investment given to Cardiff City (over the last year and in the year to come). Of that £35m will have to be allocated for buying back assists (Elland Road and Thorp Arch). I would also assume a £15m “unexpected bills” provision might be needed. So a quarter gone already. Let us them presume that the remaining monies if for a period of time that takes in promotion to the PL and then staying their and establishing ala Stoke City/West Brom style. That’s a good five seasons so even if you assume 50% of the remaining monies is for buying players (the rest is wages, infrastructure changes etc) that only equates to £15m a season. Now some people could do a lot with £15m a season (and being 10-20 times what we have been spending since 2002 it would be most welcome) but that does not mean success. Leicester City have spend such sums in last couple of years, Cardiff City, Nottingham Forest and Hull City are investing, even Bristol City seem to be on a roll. We should also remember that you only get 5 Snodgrasses or 1.5 Stephen Fletcher’s or even worse less than a quarter of a Newcastle Andy Carroll and three-quarters of a Liverpool selling Andy Carroll so not a guaranteed success strategy, and that is before you factor in who spends it!
Ah yes Neil Warnock, our own god of total anti football. Best deal with him next week (after all our new owners should they accrue may save me the bother). But in the meantime we carry on, still in the hands of Bates and still receiving precious little information, it was ever thus. Miserablism remains because nothing has changed and when it does their are decades of misery to put right first before it can be put to bed.
Cheers.
Michael Green
The Miserablist has left the building but his spirit is kept by our editorial team. Thus from this point on the miserablist is Michael Green and he is doing a Wednesday weekly column.
As much as I would rather take over the mantle of miserablist after the takeover is complete and in truth when Neil Warnock has been removed from his divisive influence on the footballing side, a bit like waiting for a squad full of committed, quality footballers it may never happen so I had best get on with it.
So where are we this fine August morning? Well after months of speculation our owner is still Mr K W Bates. He still has his trusted cohorts in place and the club is still a byword for customer relations dysfunctionalism. One change has taken place, Bates himself is keeping his mouth closed and for that we all give a sigh of relief. Now it won’t do anyone much good to repeat the arguments used constantly on this site as to why his “imminent” departure would be a good thing but it would probably be a good idea to set out, from this miserablist perspective, where we are takeover wise, and that is all over the shop for now!
Facts are hard to garner but we can say a variety of things, however before that we should also point out some truths about ourselves very evident from the drawn out takeover. For example if one good thing is to come out of this protracted takeover it will be this: a clear understanding that the vast majority of Leeds United fans on Twitter and other social media are clearly stupid, pathetic and clueless. Nothing will ever bring the months of my life back that has disappeared for ever since I first got whiff of a realistic takeover. Absolutely nothing, in terms of the details made available in that time has changed. I am as frustrated as anyone (in fact probably more so as I have put in more effort than most to see the back of the present ownership) and I certainly have no truck with the “be patient” brigade but I think 99.99999999999999999999% of speculation and comment has frankly being wasteful idiocy!
Rather however than continue to berate those responsible for this outbreak of mindlessness this article would rather state what in my opinion is clearly how things stand and thus ensure that if it takes another 5/10/15 days to sort things out at least the comments that abound can be set within realistic parameters. So the realities as seen by me are:
* The club is in a process that will lead to control of Leeds United being placed in new hands.
* The club has given a consortium exclusive access to the books to do due diligence.
* It is highly likely that the due diligence process is already complete.
* A price has been agreed, this is not a reason why the sale hasn’t been announced.
* The Leeds United Supporters Trust have been as open as they feel they can with the information they have been party to, personally I would have preferred them to be even more direct about things but as they say, learn to walk before running.
* The general geographical area of the funds has been identified and speculated on widely and is only rubbished by idiots. It is a matter for speculation whether the nationality of the main funder is a “fit and proper” test matter. We need also to remember again it is a consortium involved so it may involve more than one country.
* It is very probable that the process now is in the hands of lawyers doting I’s and crossing T’s, as likely as not about confidentiality. We also now understand a off-shore Bahrain bank is involved.
* It is not normal for clubs to engage in the level of signings the club has recently whilst in the process of a sale unless usually the buyers have sanctioned the activity. However as the Snodgrass sale showed we seem to be bringing in money like we usually have since 2007 but also spending more money in the dying embers of the present regime than we have for years (although still at relatively low levels). It has been speculated some in advance funding as been secured from somewhere but the evidence is scant.
* Consortium’s imply multi sources of funding, this is both good and bad news as it implies sustainability but knocks on the head being the new Manchester City.
* It could be months before we see the culture of the club change, it is rather like a super-tanker in that regard.
I could go on at even more length but basically this is where we are. The only other thing I will say about ownership is we should not assume the figureheads on day one of completion will be around 6 months later.
So what do we think the upshot of it all will be? Well I have to be honest, if I wasn’t in a PITK loop (P stands for partly) I would have given up on it happening by now. My instincts and miserablism would have pronounced this a Norwegian Blue takeover about 3 weeks ago. What sustains me in the hope something positive will happen is Bates’s continued silence, once he returns to the fray no amount of drip feeding will sustain me, regardless of source. But let us park that thought and concentrate on what we think will happen if that negativity has no basis? Well, notwithstanding possible complexities arising from the choice of off-shore fund holding, we can assume the club will have more investment available to it than it has since 1999, however that level of investment won’t go as far.
Let us take a random dream figure of £200m which is double the rumoured investment given to Cardiff City (over the last year and in the year to come). Of that £35m will have to be allocated for buying back assists (Elland Road and Thorp Arch). I would also assume a £15m “unexpected bills” provision might be needed. So a quarter gone already. Let us them presume that the remaining monies if for a period of time that takes in promotion to the PL and then staying their and establishing ala Stoke City/West Brom style. That’s a good five seasons so even if you assume 50% of the remaining monies is for buying players (the rest is wages, infrastructure changes etc) that only equates to £15m a season. Now some people could do a lot with £15m a season (and being 10-20 times what we have been spending since 2002 it would be most welcome) but that does not mean success. Leicester City have spend such sums in last couple of years, Cardiff City, Nottingham Forest and Hull City are investing, even Bristol City seem to be on a roll. We should also remember that you only get 5 Snodgrasses or 1.5 Stephen Fletcher’s or even worse less than a quarter of a Newcastle Andy Carroll and three-quarters of a Liverpool selling Andy Carroll so not a guaranteed success strategy, and that is before you factor in who spends it!
Ah yes Neil Warnock, our own god of total anti football. Best deal with him next week (after all our new owners should they accrue may save me the bother). But in the meantime we carry on, still in the hands of Bates and still receiving precious little information, it was ever thus. Miserablism remains because nothing has changed and when it does their are decades of misery to put right first before it can be put to bed.
Cheers.
