Leeds United inevitability drowning out Daniel Farke defence — Graham Smyth's Aston Villa Verdict — YEP 24/11/25

By Graham Smyth

Leeds United are not quite good enough right now and while it's hardly the crime of the century, it's not good enough.

Some of the anger directed at Daniel Farke as he walked around Elland Road following a 2-1 defeat by Aston Villa was a little much - he knew what he was doing when he got the team promoted a few months ago - but there is no doubt that this is a fanbase on the turn. Chants of 'make a sub' and the full-time boos were at a volume that cannot be ignored by owners 49ers Enterprises. And when fans start to turn, the noise they make is accompanied by a sense of inevitability, because there is rarely ever any coming back from it.

Leeds lacking quality

Inevitability is a good word to use when launching any explanation of Farke and Leeds' problems because they are not inevitable in the way other Premier League teams are. Against Villa they were back to being scrappy, pressing with intensity and causing problems on and off the ball but once again lacked the quality to turn good positions and possession into goals. When they did find the net, goalscorer Lukas Nmecha knew precious little about it because it was a goal-line clearance that rebounded off him and into the net.

Come the second half when Villa made changes and brought on more attacking quality, they scored. Leeds don't have to give away many big chances because so many Premier League teams have that kind of quality in their starting XI and often in reserve too.

The biggest concern for Farke heading into the season was that lack of attacking firepower but now it has been coupled with a nasty habit of switching off and conceding poor goals. When so much has to go right for you to score a goal, then defensive frailty is the deadliest sin because so little has to go wrong for you to concede and then a game so easily slips away. One untracked runner. One failure to press. One free header. One piece of poor goalkeeping. Leeds do not score enough goals to afford the number they are conceding.

Going into this game even the dogs in the street knew how big it was because after poor back-to-back performances and four defeats in five, fan dissatisfaction had grown to a point where Elland Road could conceivably turn toxic in certain circumstances. And as tough a proposition as Villa are, the next three games make up a truly treacherous run. In this block of four, Aston Villa at home held the biggest chance of points. What's more, one of Farke's positives he kept speaking about was that they had not once dropped into the relegation zone. On Saturday they did. 

Farke selection decisions

The team sheet held selections that were and were not surprising all at the same time. Brenden Aaronson keeping his place despite Leeds being at home, needing a win. Despite Daniel James' fitness and positive international break. Farke's pre-game press conference had all-but confirmed the Welshman still had a way to go to convince his manager. In defence Pascal Struijk came back in for Jaka Bijol, which was probably merited on the basis of the Slovenian's underwhelming last two performances, yet Farke is not prone to chopping and changing central defenders.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin remained on the bench and Nmecha in the starting line-up. Nmecha might have scored a lovely goal at Nottingham Forest but that was all he did in a poor showing. And when this side's best chance of staying up appears to lie heavily in playing direct to hold-up and aerial specialist Calvert-Lewin, the onus is on Nmecha to provide that same service for his team. Prior to Villa it could not be said that he had done it to the same level as the number 9 the club pinned their hopes on in the summer.

When the ball was first played up to Nmecha his first touch sailed out of play on the right. His second attempt at holding it up was not helped by the slippy surface but he battled and forced the ball to a white shirt. His third 'touch' was a goal.

Leeds had shaded the first several minutes and were trying to play on the front foot on and off the ball. With it, Noah Okafor burst forward on the left and though he was well challenged in the area Leeds were able to keep the pressure on. Sean Longstaff's free-kick delivery caused problems, Anton Stach and Nmecha challenged Emi Martinez, the ball dropped towards goal and Ezri Konsa whacked it off Nmecha and into the net. A VAR check ruled out offside - by the margin of an elbow - and the officials decided that a fair challenge on a goalkeeper was, for once, permissible.

Robert Jones' refereeing dovetailed quite nicely with Leeds United's gameplan for most of the first half. He allowed them to be physical and didn't buy into most of the appeals from Villa skipper John McGinn. And it frustrated Villa no end. Jayden Bogle had set the tone early on, smashed into Lucas Digne to win the ball and a throw-in. There was almost always pressure on the ball from Ethan Ampadu, Longstaff and Ao Tanaka, who came on for a potentially concussed Stach in the first half, while Aaronson and Nmecha pressed as if their lives depended on it. At the back Joe Rodon got the better of Ollie Watkins in their individual battle and on the left Okafor and Gudmundsson took turns in running deep into enemy territory to threaten.

Chances were at a premium. Aaronson's snapshot from the edge of the box was the best Leeds had after the goal, while Watkins briefly broke free of his markers to whip a beauty just past Lucas Perri's post. There was plenty to keep Elland Road engaged though, most of it involving their heroes making physical contact with Villans.

It was only right at the end of the half that Villa were able to build any sort of momentum and it was the hosts' turn to be frustrated with Jones as he booked Bogle for stopping a restart and let Youri Tielemans get away with the same thing, but it was 1-0 at the break. So far so good. Aaronson had won the free-kick that led to the goal, Nmecha had scored it and Struijk was playing nice passes. Farke was getting what he wanted and his selections were justified.

Emery subs impact

Then Unai Emery made a double change at the break, bringing on Ian Maatsen and Donyell Malen. The latter took less than three minutes to make a difference. Leeds were slow to apply pressure to McGinn, Okafor was late to spot Malen's run and the Dutchman slammed in a cross that Morgan Rogers poked past Perri to level. Defensive frailty meet inevitable quality.

It was a desperately poor start to the second half but at least Leeds' response to the goal was encouraging. They fed on little bits of chaos. An Aaronson dribble took him to the edge of the area where he failed to get a shot away. Then he got into a great position and failed to get a cross in. Longstaff couldn't get a shot off. Quite good, just not good enough. For long enough that Elland Road began to lose its patience. Aaronson dallying on the ball turned an attack into a Villa counter and Elland Road lost its patience. With the game in the balance the stadium was a tinder box, just waiting for ignition. They chanted for James' introduction. They chanted for Gnonto. Then simply demanded 'make a sub' as Farke experienced the closest thing to open revolt since taking the job. One individual left the West Stand and wandered towards the home technical area as if to make a point to the manager, before being swiftly removed by security and stewards. And as he was making an enforced exit, James and Calvert-Lewin were being prepared fir an entrance.

First came James and Calvert-Lewin, replacing Tanaka and Nmecha. On 70 minutes. By which time Leeds were hanging on with Villa breathing down their necks. Bogle had to make a brilliantly-timed challenge in the box and Rodon blocked a shot on the edge. Malen shot wide from a great position. A full 10 minutes elapsed between the stadium sensing the need for change and Farke agreeing.

But before his first subs could make any impact, their side went 2-1 down. A Gudmundsson slip drew Pascal Struijk into a desperate slide tackle on the edge of the box for which he was carded and Rogers stuck the free-kick in the back of the net. Perri looked on, unsighted until it was too late, having apparently built a wall that he could not see through, over or around.

It was then that Farke's replacements did combine to make an impact, just not the one he or they wanted. James' pace took him into the area, behind the defence and in on Martinez who was beaten by the Welsh international's finish. Before it could cross the line it brushed Calvert-Lewin's hand. VAR intervened and it stayed 2-1 Villa.

On came Joel Piroe and Gnonto. Leeds went for it and came close when Longstaff's free-kick was headed goalwards by Struijk, only for Martinez to palm it out. That was the closest they came before the end and a performance that for long spells was quite good yielded a result that could never be described as good enough.

Points tally concern

Farke can rightly say, not for the first time this season, that small margins decided this one and they gave themselves a chance. He could say it at Fulham, at home to Bournemouth and Spurs too. Those three games yielded one solitary point. They were quite good but not good enough to reward their performances with the results they wanted. There can be no talk of underlying metrics that drowns out the sobering fact that Leeds have taken three points from the last 18 on offer. Everything Farke said about his decisions and selections was largely lost in the inevitable noise that followed another defeat.

The German insists he is not spending any time worrying about his job security. Yet even if 49ers Enterprises are not panicking, there must now be some element of worry about whether or not their manager can get more out of this squad, whether or not he can make them good enough defensively to render the lack of attacking quality less of an issue. After 12 games they sit within the drop zone having outscored only Wolves, having conceded the fourth-highest tally in the division. Adding a porous defence to a paucity of goals is a recipe for danger.

It was always going to be a difficult job this season no matter who was put in charge of this squad - the recruitment in the summer was not quite enough - but an increasing number of supporters are doubting or openly questioning Farke's ability to do it. Many admit as such with real notes of reluctance, out of respect for what he has done for the club. Neither he nor his players are committing any crime against the fans, no one falls short on purpose and against Villa everyone could see a team still fighting for their manager, still believing in his football and even a goal down late on still sticking to the plan. In the end it was not quite good enough. If you say that enough times in the Premier League then get ready for the inevitable.