Let’s go up, actually — Square Ball 4/2/25

Not a bad idea

Written by: William Almond

To give you a brief peek behind the scenes at The Square Ball blog, since the beginning of the season I’ve had an article pencilled in about not really wanting to get promoted. The idea, in theory, was that Leeds would be fifteen points clear by January and I could, very gently and carefully, remind the other promotion contenders that not only were we going up, but I wasn’t even that bothered about it.

That obviously hasn’t happened. I mean, it might have if we had a different ‘keeper, or the squad weren’t addicted to the Red Bull-stocked mini fridges in the home dressing room. But it hasn’t.

As of this weekend though, Leeds are finally five points clear of 3rd, and having battered an admittedly terrible Cardiff side 7-0 at Elland Road finally look on course for the Premier League. (VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not saying we will definitely go up. Do not tweet or email*.)

And so, it could have been time for the rant about not really wanting to go up because the Premier League is rigged. Not rigged in the way Arsenal fans would have you believe, with a sinister cabal apparently consisting of Michael Oliver, David Coote, and The Sun newspaper conspiring to prevent them winning Liverpool’s title. But as we all know, it is rigged financially. The biggest, richest teams with the biggest and most expensive squads win. And there is no point going up because you’ll come back down again saddled with an overpaid, under-contracted squad and the memory of failure that can take months of travelling to Pride Park and Deepdale for players to shake out of their legs and minds.

It’s not like the Championship doesn’t have its attractions either. Big away day allocations — travel chaos aside — and 7-0 wins aren’t to be sniffed at, although if the empty seats at the Etihad in recent years are anything to go by, that might also become tiresome quicker than you’d think.

Walking home from the play-off final defeat to Southampton last season while texting a Saints supporting friend I insisted that, yeah, it would have been nice to have won at Wembley; and, yeah, if the game had gone differently I’d currently be in a massive queue at Box Park savouring the thought of the pint I might eventually be able to buy, instead of dragging my feet through the grey summer streets of north west London trying to get as far from Wembley Park station as possible; but no, I wasn’t jealous of Southampton’s promotion. I really didn’t fancy an immediate return to whipping boy status, especially as, in theory, the weakest of the promoted sides.

Naturally, part of this, however subconsciously, is probably a self-defence strategy, a way to pretend the run-in doesn’t really matter and an excuse for when Leeds inevitably drop to 3rd after losing to an injury-time winner away at Plymouth Argyle to say, “Yeah, mate, didn’t wanna get promoted anyway.” That might be especially comforting in the wake of a January transfer window when there wasn’t even a tease of ‘don’t go to bed just yet’.

So what’s changed? Obviously not the Leeds United first-team squad, at least in the last month.

Well for one, if we went up we would no longer be the weakest of the promoted sides. Take any metric, from xG to the eye test, or most crucially, the table — Leeds are the best team in the league, even if we can be sometimes a bit pedestrian. Away form is a problem this season because we need, and are expected to, win virtually every game we play. But next season wins at a raucous Elland Road, with plenty more Saturday 3pm kick-offs, would probably be enough of a platform to stave off relegation.

And secondly, even Southampton won in the Premier League at the weekend. Yes, they only have nine points, but bafflingly that’s only ten points off safety. The top twelve currently includes Notts Forest, Bournemouth, Fulham, Brighton, and Brentford. Leeds’ 9th-place finish under Marcelo Bielsa no longer looks like a complete outlier, but instead something that’s possible to achieve consistently with competent boardroom oversight. Obviously, that remains to be seen.

Whether Leeds are too big a club, with too much pressure from the city and the stands to truly mimic these sides also remains to be seen. But the Premier League isn’t quite the closed shop it once appeared: 7th will get you European football. I’m not saying that Leeds will be travelling the continent come 2026/27, but a man can dream.

We obviously need a new goalkeeper and, Joel Piroe’s recent brace notwithstanding, probably a new striker to compete at the top level. In reality, Ao Tanaka might be the only player we’ve recruited since relegation who seems almost certain to be up to the challenge in the top flight. But maybe if Leeds do get away with it this season, not buying now and saving that money for next summer could be seen as a masterstroke.

Anyway, I’m beginning to talk myself into 2pm Sunday kick-offs and three minutes at the end of Match Of The Day. I’m beginning to talk myself into actually wanting Leeds to be in the top two come May. And obviously that’s dangerous, both for my own mental health and presumably, given our track record, for Leeds’ hopes of actually doing that. Blame it on the 7-0. Or Southampton.