The defensive data that points to a Leeds promotion under Daniel Farke — The Athletic 21/2/24
By Phil Hay
With very little prompting, it was Daniel Farke who drew a
comparison between Leeds United on his watch and Leeds United under Marcelo
Bielsa.
He was halfway through a press conference a few weeks back
when he referenced the fact Leeds’ points tally in this season’s Championship
was tracking ahead of 2019-20, the year Bielsa magicked them to its title.
Something in Farke felt the urge to talk up his team’s performance, although
increasingly he has been preaching to the converted.
If Leeds do go up in May under his guidance, history will
record certain differences between Farke and the last coach to take them into
the Premier League.
Farke’s dressing room, pound for pound, is stronger than
Bielsa’s was then and perhaps for that reason, there is not the same curiosity
in how momentum is building. The aura around Bielsa was in no small way the
product of him taking an also-ran squad and soaking it in excellence. But it is
also true that Leeds were not asked to get out of a league as ferociously
competitive at the top as this one is.
What Leeds had four years ago, and what Farke has given them
again, was cast-iron quality at both ends of the pitch.
Bielsa was renowned for his all-out attack but after how it
ended for him at Elland Road, it is easily forgotten that in the year of
promotion, no side in the division could touch Leeds’ defensive record. In an
average game that season, Bielsa’s allowed fewer than three shots on target,
and one big chance at most.
Farke does not give his players licence to go forward with
the same abandon as Bielsa — very few coaches do — but despite that, much
attention has been paid to the threat posed by his front line and the goals
they have delivered. Like 2019-20, discussions about that strength have
diverted attention away from a defence conceding the fewest goals in the
Championship, a line of resistance which has Leeds on a run of eight league
wins in a row.
Leeds last won nine league fixtures back-to-back in the
1930s. In their history, they have never won 10 straight and if it is remotely
true that attacks settle games but defences win titles, it should not be a
surprise that they are still in the slipstream of leaders Leicester City.
The devil in the detail says it all…
There are two statistics which Farke considers fairly
critical in opening the door to automatic promotion from the Championship: a
final tally of wins standing at no fewer than 26, and a points-per-game average
of two or more. The make-up of the current top four, all of them trending
towards final totals of 90 points-plus, might mean neither of those targets is
quite enough this season, but Farke is aiming for them on the basis that, in a
typical campaign, they would get you over the line.
It is unusual, however, for a club to go up from the
Championship while allowing more than a goal a game — something Farke’s Norwich
City did in 2018-19 when they let in 57 while winning the title. Leeds, after
33 games, are performing vastly better at the back than that — 26 goals
conceded gives them the joint-best record in the division, alongside Leicester.
And if you dig a little deeper into how many they should
have conceded, their defending looks even more impressive.
So far, Opta’s data based on chances given up by Farke’s
side estimates Leeds ought to have allowed 26.9 goals so far, essentially
placing them bang on target. The calculation equates to an expected goals
against (xGA) of 0.80 goals per 90 minutes and in only two of their last 12
league matches — West Bromwich Albion away in December and Preston North End at
home last month — were the opposition allowed an xG of one or more. With the
exception of a 4-3 win at Ipswich Town in August, Leeds have religiously prevented
their xGA in a given match from slipping above two.
Leicester took control of the Championship from the get-go,
winning 13 of their first 14 matches, and their defensive record is excellent.
But as time goes on, it is struggling to maintain statistical parity with
Leeds’ numbers. Leicester’s xGA, the second-best in the division, stands at
30.8, almost five higher than their actual total of concessions, which suggests
Enzo Maresca’s team have got away with a few more dicey moments than Leeds.
When Farke set about building the sort of back four he
wanted in the summer, like most coaches he was big on enlisting defenders with
strong passing ability.
Recruitment of centre-backs in particular has long since
changed from the days when basic defensive attributes were a priority, and that
was demonstrated by the options Leeds took an interest in during the summer
window: Liverpool’s Nat Phillips, Manchester City’s Taylor Harwood-Bellis and
Joe Rodon of Tottenham Hotspur. Rodon was the loanee they moved to secure but
it was no coincidence that promotion-race rivals Southampton signed
Harwood-Bellis. These are central defenders who fit a certain type.
Rodon has been pivotal to Farke’s approach and Leeds’ good
form, but allied to his comfort in possession are traits that are helping make
Leeds very sturdy — not least the pace required to hold a high line. Though
Leeds do not concede often, the first problem for opponents is that they do not
make it easy for you to even get the chance to score. Like Bielsa’s machine in
2019-20, Farke’s second-placed team limit shots on target massively, with a
mere 79 against this season (or 2.5 per 90).
In context, by the end of this past weekend, Leicester had given away 118, third-placed Southampton 109 and Ipswich Town, in fourth, 116. Leeds are one of only two Championship sides, with West Brom (98), not yet into three figures for this metric. Six of their last eight matches have seen just one effort on target against them, and it is hardly a surprise to learn Leeds allow the fewest chances from open play across the whole division (11.3 per 90).
The number of ‘big chances’ — a situation where a player
should reasonably be expected to score — given away by Leeds was arguably their
undoing in the Premier League last season. There were other factors at work
too, but let teams into dangerous shooting positions as often as Leeds did and
the damage is going to be extensive.
They gave away 112 big chances in 2022-23 — hence a hideous,
league-worst total of 78 goal concessions. After 33 matches this season, so
five less than they played last term, they have allowed only 32, fewer than
anyone else in the Championship and a contrast to Leicester’s 49 and
Southampton’s 56. It is fairly rare for any opposition player to see the whites
of goalkeeper Illan Meslier’s eyes.
Leeds’ commitment to playing on the front foot and
maintaining possession naturally limits attacks against them but in a structure
which revolves around a sitting midfielder, providing added protection when
Farke’s full-backs go forward, so little is given away cheaply. If anything,
Farke’s defence has got stronger since Ethan Ampadu moved from midfield to
centre-back. Ilia Gruev — a regular starter for Bulgaria and a former
Bundesliga midfielder — stepping into Ampadu’s previous role No 6 role underlines
the wealth of quality.
Farke moaning about Leeds’ finishing after their 1-0 victory
over Bristol City a couple of weeks ago was justified on the basis of their
stats. But in truth, Leeds are a side who can get away with wasting
opportunities because they rarely need to score a boatload of goals to win a
game.
In their 11 matches so far in 2024, Leeds have conceded
three times, once in the Championship. They took their haul of league clean
sheets this season to 15 at Plymouth Argyle on Saturday, still seven short of
Bielsa’s total of 22 in the 46 games of 2019-20 but realistically close enough
to equal or beat it over the remaining 13 fixtures. They are nine off the club
record of 24 that has stood since the Don Revie era. Leicester, Southampton and
Ipswich all sit in double figures too but are several short of Leeds’ total.
Surprisingly, Leeds have registered one more clean sheet
away from home than they have at Elland Road — surprisingly, because they will
be looking for a 13th home league win in 14 games when Leicester visit on
Friday and remain unbeaten on their own pitch in the league this season after
16 fixtures.
The difficulty in drawing first blood against Leeds means
they spend relatively little time in a losing game state, or in scenarios which
have spiralled out of control.
They say playing in the Premier League is a dream for most
players, but maybe not if it pans out like Meslier’s last two seasons at that
level.
Leeds conceded a chronic number of goals on the way to
relegation. While the defence and the organisation of the team in front of
Meslier made him very vulnerable, the data showed clearly that he was conceding
more often than he should have done — and by quite some distance. While some
goalkeepers were good at digging their teams out of trouble, Meslier sat at the
opposite end of the spectrum, and was eventually dropped by Sam Allardyce when
he came in as manager for the final four games.
Down in the Championship this season, and in a Leeds side as
strong as Farke’s, Meslier was never likely to be under anything like the same
pressure. But the data for expected goals on target conceded (xGOT) — numbers
which estimate how many goals a ’keeper should be letting in, as opposed to how
many they actually are — shows Meslier has undergone much-needed improvement,
with very little disparity between expected concessions and actual ones (-0.02
per 90). As a result, his place in the team has hardly been under threat.
