Leeds United mailbag: Raphinha’s release clause, transfers and plans for Elland Road - The Athletic 28/3/22

By Phil Hay

A weekend off for Leeds United — and very few complaints about it after the madness of the past month — but Elland Road is never quiet and our latest mailbag threw up no end of questions about the state of play as the season heads to its run-in.

Contract talks, transfers and recruitment plans, Marcelo Bielsa’s dismissal, Jesse Marsch’s appointment, the latest on stadium redevelopment, all of this and more was touched upon in submissions from you earlier this week.

Read on for the answers…

Do you know if there is any truth in the rumours about Raphinha turning down Leeds’ contract offer and agreeing personal terms with Barcelona? — Joel B.

This was a question on many people’s lips after a bit of speculation in the past few days. Zach D, for instance, asked what had happened since Christmas, when Leeds were quietly confident that a new deal for Raphinha was close to being agreed.

First things first, Barcelona are very much interested in him. In terms of future destinations for Raphinha, they were always a prime candidate — partly because of their standing and partly because of the very strong link between the Catalan club and his agent, Deco, who spent four years there as a player in the early 2000s. What we can say at this stage is that they have not submitted any offers to Leeds.

You’ll have read in various places about a release clause in Raphinha’s current deal. I’ve asked about this several times and been told consistently the only release clause in the contract relates to relegation (and in that scenario, it goes without saying that he would be leaving the club anyway).

The new contract Leeds want him to sign, however, would include a release clause at a fixed price. Naturally, it suits Raphinha to have said price as low as possible and suits Leeds to have it as high as possible. That’s been a key part of negotiations between them.

Around Christmas, Victor Orta and Deco met at least twice and there was plenty of optimism about Raphinha agreeing new terms. Very little has been said since then and common sense tells you that both Leeds’ brush with relegation and the change of head coach at Elland Road will have dissuaded the player from rushing into signing a longer deal. He knows he is sought-after.

I get the feeling that the club and the fanbase are realistic enough to accept that the 25-year-old Brazilian is a player who will move on to bigger things at some stage.

It seems to me we need about five (new signings) if we stay up. How contingent might that be on the disposal of Raphinha? — George M.

Selling someone such as Raphinha would raise substantial funds and I can’t see Leeds even entertaining Barcelona’s reported valuation of £30 million (according to various Spanish outlets). His asking price is bigger than that.

Clearly, there are other players at the club who carry a high value too — Kalvin Phillips and Illan Meslier to name two — and, for a while, it has seemed likely that this summer would be the window where a major asset might leave Elland Road.

The money received would help with recruitment but a departure would leave a large hole in the squad too and if, as George suggests, Leeds look to bring in a clutch of new signings, they will need a budget beyond what they can raise by cashing in on existing players.

One thing worth adding — they speak a lot about the Leicester City model at Elland Road, and the Leicester City model has never involved selling more than one key player in a single summer window. Leeds have to control any outgoings.

Would Kalvin Phillips seriously consider going to Aston Villa if he leaves Leeds? I, for one, would feel massively let down by that. Where is the development? If he went to a club with a realistic chance of winning something and being in a European competition, fair enough. But Villa? Come on… — Andy P.

If Leeds go down, all bets would be off.

Players such as Phillips would need to find themselves Premier League clubs and would have to be open to whatever offers were on the table.

But if Leeds stay up, and they’ve given themselves a huge chance of that by winning the last two games, I’d find it odd to see him go to Villa or West Ham United — two of the clubs linked with him recently.

Phillips turns 27 this year and because of his age, doesn’t have an endless line of future big moves in him.

Given his development and his progress at international level with England, the target for him, if he was to leave, would surely be relatively-secure Champions League football most seasons. Anything less would feel like him selling himself short.

But we all know Villa have been on his case for a while.

Do you think the proximity of the World Cup keeps Phillips here for at least another season? He’s an automatic starter for club and country when fit. Staying at Leeds another year solidifies his place in the England team. Maybe Leeds and/or Phillips entertain the possibility of him moving on in the summer of 2023. He’ll be another year older, but will still be coveted. — Stefan S.

Very possibly, although he’s another player who Leeds need to agree a contract extension with. Phillips’ deal is up in 2024 which leaves him with two more years on his contract. At Premier League level, that’s often the critical point when it comes to deciding what to do with a major asset. In 12 months’ time, his value would have diminished significantly because he’d be getting close to being a free agent. But equally, he’s not a player Leeds would want to lose. The optimum scenario would be to tie him down and keep him for another year.

Victor Orta has given an interview claiming that next season will be a continuation of 18 first-team players mixed with under-23s. Obviously, youth is important but surely, after this season, they should have learnt a little? — Tom D.

I think the squad has to be bigger. But there are several different strands to this debate.

One is that Leeds can surely find a way to reduce the number of injuries they’ve sustained this season (already more than twice what the average Premier League club have to deal with in a single year) and that would automatically give them a stronger hand.

Leeds announced on Sunday that Patrick Bamford will be out for at least another six weeks. He has been playing with an injury to the sole of his foot for 12 months and it has got worse. “As all of the stats show, Patrick has put his body on the line for Leeds United for a number of seasons,” said head of medicine and performance Rob Price — and he’s right.

They’ve also have suffered badly from cramming square pegs in round holes since August and also from a lack of competition for places, caused by the fact that so few proven players have been available.

Leeds have a great crop of under-23s, no doubt, and need to nurture those prospects and bring them through but it’s hard not to feel that the past nine months have been a pointed lesson about depth and quality. The next transfer window has to be more aggressive.

Have we been keeping in contact with RB Salzburg about Brenden Aaronson or will we reopen communication with them in the summer? Providing we stay up, of course. — Rory M.

The intention is, or certainly was, to bid again for Aaronson. He’s interested in the move, he’s played under Jesse Marsch before and Salzburg are likely to be more open to bids in the summer than they were in January.

It’ll be interesting to see who Leeds target. James Garner, the Manchester United midfielder who’s on loan at Nottingham Forest in the Championship and having a very good year, is someone I’ve heard mentioned recently.

What have you made of Marsch on the evidence we’ve seen in the past four games? Do you think there’s hope for a strong season next time out,? And if so, what needs to change for that to happen? — Sam D.

Adam E expanded on this by saying he felt that, aside from the defeat away to Leicester, so far we’d seen “a more hybrid system of Marsch and Bielsaball” — and he wanted to know why.

Personally, it doesn’t seem like a deliberate hybrid approach to me. I think what we’ve witnessed is the pressure coming on dramatically after the Villa game and Leeds having to find any which way to win a couple of incredibly high-stakes fixtures.

Between the short time Marsch has had to coach the squad and four games being squeezed into a short period of time, a clear image of his football hasn’t been able to shine through yet.

If Leeds can reach a point of safety fairly soon, then you’d like to think we’ll get a more obvious picture of how Marsch wants the team to set up and play long term, but it will probably take until next season for us to be sure.

There are quite a few variables involved in this, not least the quality and scale of recruitment in the next window. That can help in a big way.

In terms of what I’ve made of his first four games, he needed results and the last two have been massive. That was really the be-all and end-all for now.

How do you think Marsch will use the under-23s, compared to Marcelo Bielsa? — John T.

There have been changes already. Tactically, the under-23s are moving to a slightly different style of play, a zonal set-up, and the squads are more separate again, with fewer of the under-23s working with the first team day-to-day. I think Marsch sees that as a way of indicating which players are closest to breaking through — ie, who is genuinely in contention.

He spoke about the academy in the interview I did with him last week, saying he wanted it to impact heavily on his playing model.

Given the money that’s been spent on the development squad, it really has to — but not at the expense of necessary senior recruitment.

What a crazy few weeks. My question: In a scenario where we stay up, who from the 2019-20 promotion team, if anyone, do you see leaving over the summer? — Daniel P.

Good question, Daniel. Not many, I don’t think. It seems to me that rather than cutting players from the squad, Leeds need to increase the size of it.

There are plenty here who can still do a job — but the quality and the levels of competition have to increase.

My question relates to the change of majority ownership and ground development. Do you think a combination of 49ers Enterprises exercising its right to purchase Andrea Radrizzani’s shares this summer, the potential to acquire land close to Elland Road from the council, the Peter Lowy factor and the 2028 Euros looking a stick-on to be hosted by the UK and Ireland will encourage a fast-tracking of plans to develop the West and North stands? (Note: I’m assuming we stay in the Premier League.) — Michael G.

Benjamin S asked something similar to this. The note about survival is pertinent because developing Elland Road was contingent on Leeds staying in the top flight. The last time managing director Angus Kinnear spoke about the project, he indicated that he expected this summer to be the point where Leeds began to formalise plans for stadium development — but it’s not something we’ve heard much about recently.

Lowy has been involved on that side of the club since becoming a director and a 49ers buy-out, if it materialises, could certainly push it forward, although the building work would require significant funding.

With regards to the 2028 European Championship, for Leeds, this is far more about the fact that they’ve got a waiting list for season tickets in excess of 20,000 than hosting any tournament games.

It makes sense on so many levels to raise Elland Road from the current capacity of 36,000.

Can you tell Michael Normanton to stop being so bloody negative? — Will R.

A podcast-related question for those who are wondering. Michael would call himself a realist and a man of the world, as proven by the fact that he’s just bought an ’02 Renault Clio. Half the world wouldn’t be seen dead in it, but considering the Ford Fiesta I used to drive, I like his style.

Where are we at with the Jean-Kevin Augustin case? I thought we were to hear the outcome this month? — James H.

The Court of Arbitration for Sport has heard the case (on March 15). Now we wait for a verdict, and the timing of that is solely in the hands of CAS. Leeds can only hope that CAS takes a different view to FIFA, because FIFA pulled no punches in saying they should cough up.

Are we going to honour Bielsa? A pre-season friendly against Newell’s Old Boys in Argentina in the summer would be mighty — Darren D.

There will be a permanent tribute to him at Elland Road before long. You’ll no doubt have seen the photo of the bucket doing the rounds on social media over the weekend.

A pre-season trip to Rosario would be a treat but I don’t think that will be happening.

Do you have any sense of how Bielsa’s sacking went down with the players privately? Was it a move that disappointed them, or was there a feeling in the squad that a change was needed? — Neil B.

There was sadness that it came to an end, definitely, and not least because of how much Bielsa had done for so many of the squad. Players who never really expected to play in the Premier League appreciate that they made it there in no small way because of him.

Form and confidence were suffering, though, and many in the dressing room understood the purpose of the change. I think they saw the potential impact of a refresh.

But, as I’ve said before, in no way was there a mutiny.

How much of this upturn in form/fortune do you think can be put down to Marsch’s arm around the shoulder approach after four years of Bielsa distancing himself emotionally? — Joe C.

The first thing to say here is that Bielsa’s approach worked brilliantly for three years. It was different to the way many coaches handle players, but the results speak for themselves.

But yes, Marsch has clearly tried to use communication to get the squad to invest in his ideas.

It’s hard to know exactly how much of an impact that’s made because the past two games have been utter chaos, but it can’t have done any harm.

Which is better, read the book or watch the movie? — Robert W.

Always read the book. Nobody ever wrote a book about a film.

Phil, are you happy in the comfy chair or are you one of these people who constantly look to seek out uncomfortable chairs? — Ephraim B.

Is it a coincidence that Norwich have some of the most uncomfortable press seats in the Premier League? I think not.

In the list of clubs that count as a comfy chair to cover, Leeds haven’t really been one — although Bielsa seriously changed that.

Do you think we will hear from Bielsa? I hope I’m not alone in wondering how he is doing. — Gary M.

If he takes another job (and he might well do) then no doubt he’ll speak about Leeds. Otherwise, he’s unlikely to go looking for attention.

From what I can gather, he’s in good spirits and he’s been holidaying with his wife back home in South America.

Hopefully, he’s able to reflect on his tenure as the phenomenon it was.